Exploring the Effect of Reservoir Storage on Peak Discharge Frequency
Publication: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 18, Issue 12
Abstract
In this paper, a simple hydrologic example is employed to illustrate the important features of reservoir regulated flood frequency. Despite its practical significance, the estimation of reservoir regulated flood frequency is largely dominated by empirical methodologies containing assumptions that could lead to incorrect results. The goal of this paper is to show by means of a continuous rainfall-runoff simulation how several reservoir variables, including the reservoir storage capacity, the size of release structures, operation rules, and the statistical variability of inflows to the reservoir, quantitatively control the regulated flood frequency. Although the example presented in this paper does not encompass the full complexity of the problem, it reveals important features of the regulated flood frequency. The study also highlights how specific assumptions in the traditional and widely used inflow volume-duration-frequency (VDF)–based methodology could lead to underestimation of flood risk for locations downstream from reservoirs. This paper, therefore, provides insight into the steps necessary to move away from the VDF-based empirical analysis towards a more realistic framework for estimating regulated flood frequencies. Simultaneously, the difficulties in fully addressing this problem are acknowledged and, consequently, continued examination of this important subject by the hydrological-science and engineering community is advocated.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Acknowledgments
We thank the Iowa Flood Center at the University of Iowa for the financial support of this research. We would also like to acknowledge the contribution of Professor Kenneth Potter and two anonymous referees whose comments and suggestions have helped improve the original manuscript.
References
Acreman, M. C. (1990). “A simple stochastic model of hourly rainfall for Farnborough, England.” Hydrol. Sci. J., 35(2), 119–148.
ArcGIS [Computer software]. Redlands, CA.
Aronica, G. T., and Candela, A. (2007). “Derivation of flood frequency curves in poorly gauged Mediterranean catchments using a simple stochastic hydrological rainfall-runoff model.” J. Hydrol. (Amsterdam), 347(1–2), 132–142.
Blazkova, S., and Beven, K. (1997). “Flood frequency prediction for data limited catchments in the Czech Republic using a stochastic rainfall model and TOPMODEL.” J. Hydrol. (Amsterdam), 195(1–4), 256–278.
Blazkova, S., and Beven, K. (2002). “Flood frequency estimation by continuous simulation for a catchment treated as ungauged (with uncertainty).” Water Resour. Res., 38(8), 1–14.
Blazkova, S., and Beven, K. (2004). “Flood frequency estimation by continuous simulation of subcatchment rainfalls and discharges with the aim of improving dam safety assessment in a large basin in the Czech Republic.” J. Hydrol. (Amsterdam), 292(1–4), 153–172.
Bradley, A. A., and Potter, K. W. (1992). “Flood frequency analysis of simulated flows.” Water Resour. Res., 28(9), 2375–2385.
Brath, A., Montanari, A., and Moretti, G. (2006). “Assessing the effect on flood frequency of land use change via hydrological simulation (with uncertainty).” J. Hydrol., 324(1–4), 141–153.
Brutsaert, W. (2005). Hydrology: An introduction, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
Cameron, D. S., Beven, K. J., Tawn, J., Blazkova, S., and Naden, P. (1999). “Flood frequency estimation by continuous simulation for a gauged upland catchment (with uncertainty).” J. Hydrol., 219(3–4), 169–187.
Chow, V. T., Maidment, D. R., and May, L. W. (1988). Appl. hydrol., McGraw-Hill, New York.
Coles, S. (2001). An introduction to statistical modeling of extreme values, Springer, London.
Cowpertwait, P., Isham, V., and Onof, C. (2007). “Point process models of rainfall: Developments for fine-scale structure.” Proc. R. Soc. A., 463(2086), 2569–2587.
Cox, D., and Isham, V. (1980). Point processes, Chapman & Hall, London.
Dawdy, D. R., Griffis, V. W., and Gupta, V. K. (2012). “Regional flood frequency analysis: How we got here and where we are going.” J. Hydrol. Eng., 17(9), 953–959.
Eagleson, P. S. (1972). “Dynamics of flood frequency.” Water Resour. Res., 8(4), 878–898.
Engeland, K., Hisdal, H., and Frigessi, A. (2004). “Practical extreme value modeling of hydrological floods and droughts: A case study.” Extremes, 7(1), 5–30.
Fenton, J. D. (1992). “Reservoir routing.” Hydrol. Sci. J., 37(3), 233–246.
Fisher, R. A., and Tippet, L. H. C. (1928). “Limiting forms of the frequency distributions of the largest or smallest member of a sample.” Proc. Camb. Phil. Soc., 24(2), 180–190.
Goldman, D. M. (2001). “Quantifying uncertainty in estimates of regulated flood frequency curves.” State of the Practice–Proc. of the World Water and Environmental Resources Congress, ASCE, Reston, VA.
Gupta, V. K., Mantilla, R., Troutman, B. M., Dawdy, D., and Krajewski, W. F. (2010). “Generalizing a nonlinear geophysical flood theory to medium size river basins.” Geophys. Res. Lett., 37(11), L11402.
Hess, G. W., and Inman, E. J. (1994). “Effects of urban flood-detention reservoirs on peak discharges and flood frequencies, and simulation of flood-detention reservoir outflow hydrographs in two watersheds in Albany, Georgia.”, USGS, Washington, DC.
Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data (IACWD). (1982). “Guidelines for determining flood flow frequency.”, U.S. Dept. of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey, Office of Water Data Collection, Reston, VA.
Interagency Floodplain Management Review Committee (IFMRC). (1994). “Sharing the challenge: Floodplain management into the 21st century.” Rep. of the Interagency Floodplain Management Review Committee to the Administration Floodplain Management Task Force, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC.
Islam, S., Entekhabi, D., Bras, R. L., and Rodriguez-Iturbe, I. (1990). “Parameter estimation and sensitivity analysis for the modified Bartlett-Lewis rectangular pulses model of rainfall.” J. Geophys. Res., 95(D3), 2093–2100.
Kaczmarska, J. (2011). “Further development of Bartlett-Lewis model for fine-resolution rainfall.”, Dept. of Statistical Science, Univ. College, London.
Khaliq, M. N., and Cunnane, C. (1996). “Modelling point rainfall occurrences with modified Bartlett Rectangular Pulses model.” J. Hydrol., 180(1–4), 109–138.
Mutel, C. F. (2010). Watershed year: Anatomy of the Iowa floods of 2008, University of Iowa Press, Iowa City, IA.
Onof, C., and Wheater, H. S. (1993). “Modelling of British rainfall using a random parameter Bartlett-Lewis rectangular pulse model.” J. Hydrol., 149(1–4), 67–95.
Pickands, J. (1975). “Statistical inference using extreme order statistics.” Ann. Stat., 3(1), 119–131.
Rodriguez-Iturbe, I., Febres De Power, B., and Valdes, J. B. (1987). “Rectangular pulses point process models for rainfall: Analysis of empirical data.” J. Geophys. Res., 92(D8), 9645–9656.
Seo, B. C., and Krajewski, W. F. (2011). “Investigation of the scale-dependent variability of radar-rainfall and rain gauge error correlation.” Adv. Water Res., 34, 152–163.
Smith, J. A., Baeck, M. L., Villarini, G., Wright, D., and Krajewski, W. F. (2013). “Extreme flood response: The June 2008 flooding in Iowa.” J. Hydrometeor., in press.
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE). (2010). “Des Moines River regulated flow frequency study.” Rock Island, IL.
Yao, H., and Georgakakos, A. P. (2001). “Assessment of Folsom Lake response to historical and potential future climate scenarios: 2. Reservoir management.” J. Hydrol., 249(1), 176–196.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 18 • Issue 12 • December 2013
Pages: 1697 - 1708
Copyright
© 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Feb 21, 2012
Accepted: Sep 26, 2012
Published online: Feb 15, 2013
Discussion open until: Jul 15, 2013
Published in print: Dec 1, 2013
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.