Characterizing Drought Using the Reliability-Resilience-Vulnerability Concept
Publication: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 18, Issue 7
Abstract
This study borrows the measures developed for the operation of water resources systems as a means of characterizing droughts in a given region. It is argued that the common approach of assessing drought using a univariate measure (severity or reliability) is inadequate as decision makers need assessment of the other facets considered here. It is proposed that the joint distribution of reliability, resilience, and vulnerability (referred to as RRV in a reservoir operation context), assessed using soil moisture data over the study region, be used to characterize droughts. Use is made of copulas to quantify the joint distribution between these variables. As reliability and resilience vary in a nonlinear but almost deterministic way, the joint probability distribution of only resilience and vulnerability is modeled. Recognizing the negative association between the two variables, a Plackett copula is used to formulate the joint distribution. The developed drought index, referred to as the drought management index (DMI), is able to differentiate the drought proneness of a given area when compared to other areas. An assessment of the sensitivity of the DMI to the length of the data segments used in evaluation indicates relative stability is achieved if the data segments are 5 years or longer. The proposed approach is illustrated with reference to the Malaprabha River basin in India, using four adjoining Climate Prediction Center grid cells of soil moisture data that cover an area of approximately .
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Acknowledgments
Financial support from Australia India Strategic Research Fund (AISRF) (project no. DST/INT/AUS/P-27/2009) is acknowledged. The authors acknowledge the help extended by Dr. S.C. Kao, Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee.
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Published In
Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 18 • Issue 7 • July 2013
Pages: 859 - 869
Copyright
© 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Jan 12, 2012
Accepted: Jul 10, 2012
Published online: Aug 6, 2012
Published in print: Jul 1, 2013
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