Understanding Precipitation Fidelity in Hydrological Modeling
Publication: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 17, Issue 12
Abstract
The objective of this research is to develop and demonstrate a methodology to specifically assess the interrelationships among estimated precipitation, observed streamflow, and hydrologic model performance. To satisfy this objective, this work introduces a new concept called “precipitation fidelity,” which is the correspondence of stream outflow to the estimated precipitation used as input into a hydrologic model. Simple annual and daily precipitation fidelity indexes are defined. The use of the precipitation fidelity indexes is then demonstrated for the Rivanna watershed in central Virginia modeled using an existing hydrologic model, the Chesapeake Bay Program Phase 5 watershed model, and the associated precipitation input data set. The precipitation fidelity results are used in conjunction with model output to identify the effect of precipitation estimation accuracy on model performance at both long and short time scales. Based on the daily precipitation fidelity measure, fidelity between the precipitation input and the observed streamflows was not observed for approximately one quarter of the days in the headwater watersheds. Days for which the estimated input precipitation has runoff-generating rainfall, but the observed stream discharge does not increase, have the highest average relative daily modeling errors and high area-weighted daily modeling errors. These results indicate that precipitation needs to be better represented in the headwater subwatersheds. Regression analysis using the analysis of covariance method was used to determine the statistical similarity between annual estimated precipitation and observed and modeled streamflows. Regression results suggested that direct hydrology calibration of the subwatershed of interest leads to both a higher level of correspondence between the estimated precipitation and modeled flows and an acceptable goodness-of-fit between the modeled and observed data.
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Acknowledgments
This work was supported in part by the Virginia Dept. of Environmental Quality, SAIC Inc., the Virginia Environmental Endowment, and the Univ. of Virginia. The authors also recognize the advice and assistance provided by G. Shenk, Integrated Analysis Coordinator of the Chesapeake Bay Program at the U.S. EPA.
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Published In
Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 17 • Issue 12 • December 2012
Pages: 1315 - 1324
Copyright
© 2012 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Mar 16, 2011
Accepted: Jan 12, 2012
Published online: Jan 14, 2012
Published in print: Dec 1, 2012
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