Impact of Climate Change on Streamflow and Soil Moisture in the Vermilion Basin, Illinois
Publication: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 17, Issue 10
Abstract
Potential effects of climate change on streamflow and soil moisture in Vermilion basin, Illinois, are investigated using a spatial distributed hydrological model (WetSpa). The model results show good agreement between observed and simulated discharges at the Leonore gauge station and soil moisture at the Stelle soil moisture recording site. Climate scenarios are derived by statistical downscaling of regional climate predictor variables for two climate scenarios and four time periods. The downscaled local climate variables are used as inputs to the WetSpa model. The results of the hydrological simulations show that streamflow in the Vermilion basin may decrease substantially, especially in summer, as a result of less precipitation but primarily due to increased evapotranspiration. Predictions also indicate that reduced precipitation in summer combined with a substantial increase in evaporative demand may lead to soil moisture deficits in the fall, which could have a negative impact on the natural vegetation and rainfed crop growth.
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Acknowledgments
Authors would like to thank the U.K. Meteorological Office, Hadley Center, and the Canadian climate research data distribution center for providing GCM data. We also would like to thank the SDSM software makers for providing this software as a freeware. The authors also would like to thank the two anonymous reviewers for their thorough review and constructive suggestions.
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Published In
Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 17 • Issue 10 • October 2012
Pages: 1059 - 1070
Copyright
© 2012 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Mar 10, 2011
Accepted: Nov 15, 2011
Published online: Nov 17, 2011
Published in print: Oct 1, 2012
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