Role of Climate Variability in Modulating the Surface Water and Groundwater Interaction over the Southeast United States
Publication: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 17, Issue 9
Abstract
This paper presents an investigation of the role of climatic variability on interannual groundwater and streamflow variability in the southeast United States. For this purpose, streamflow and associated groundwater levels are analyzed for 20 basins that are minimally affected by reservoirs and groundwater pumping. Using the spatially averaged monthly precipitation time series obtained from the Precipitation-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM), this paper identifies the recharge and discharge periods that influence the groundwater levels during the winter [January, February, March (JFM)] and summer [July, August, September (JAS)] seasons. Recharge-discharge dependency analyses indicate that precipitation during the previous 3 months influences the groundwater level in a given month. Streamflow in any given month depends on the groundwater level during the previous 3 months. Principal component analysis (PCA) on the precipitation, temperature, streamflow, and groundwater data indicates that groundwater levels and streamflow are the two dominant variables influencing the basin hydroclimatology. Furthermore, relating the percentage variance explained from the PCA to baseflow index (BFI) clearly shows that basins with high BFI have higher eigenvalues, indicating that groundwater is a spatial integrator of hydroclimatic processes. Relating the groundwater levels with El Niño/ Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index, NINO3.4, shows that interannual variability in JFM groundwater levels could be partially explained by the ENSO conditions, but the relationship between JAS groundwater levels and JAS NINO3.4 is not statistically significant. Precipitation forecasts from the ECHAM4.5 general circulation model indicate that it is possible to quantify groundwater availability during the winter season on the basis of the forecasted precipitation and ENSO conditions.
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Acknowledgments
The authors would like to thank Dr. Jerad Bales of USGS for his comments and criticism on the initial version of the manuscript. The authors of this work were partially supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF) under CAREER Grant CBET-0954405. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not reflect the views of the NSF. Partial support for this study was also obtained from the Early Career Grant from North Carolina Sea Grant and North Carolina Water Resources Research Institute. The authors would like to also thank two anonymous reviewers for their feedback and comments, which helped in improving the manuscript.
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Published In
Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 17 • Issue 9 • September 2012
Pages: 1001 - 1010
Copyright
© 2012 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Sep 2, 2010
Accepted: Oct 29, 2011
Published online: Nov 2, 2011
Published in print: Sep 1, 2012
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