Analyzing Inflow Trend of Indiana Reservoirs Using SOM
Publication: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 17, Issue 8
Abstract
Inflows to reservoir systems are affected by climatic changes. In the past, regional inflow trend analyses were conducted using statistical approaches. This research made use of an artificial intelligence technique called the self-organizing map (SOM) to perform trend and cluster analysis for the inflows into the flood-control reservoirs of Indiana. Along with SOM, this research also used the Mann-Kendall test and a revised Mann-Kendall test for regional analysis. Results indicate an increasing trend in the clusters that represent days with high inflows to the northern reservoirs of Indiana when inflows to the central and southern reservoirs were low or medium. A 7% increase was noticed in the annual daily counts belonging to this cluster during the past 20 years. Similar trends were observed concerning high-inflow days to the central reservoirs of Indiana. However, they are not statistically significant at a 95% confidence level. This study concludes that SOM is a useful tool for studying the trends at a regional level.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
References
ASCE Task Committee on Application of Artificial Neural Networks in Hydrology. (2000). “Artificial neural networks in hydrology. I: Preliminary concepts.” J. Hydrol. Eng.JHYEFF, 5(2), 115–123.
Brekke, L. D. et al. (2009). “Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change.” Water Resour. Res.WRERAQ, 45(4), W04411.
Burn, D. H., and Simonovic, S. P. (1996). “Sensitivity of reservoir operation performance to climate change.” Water Resour. Manage.WRMAEJ, 10(6), 463–478.
Cavazos, T. (2000). “Using self-organizing maps to investigate extreme climate events: An application to wintertime precipitation in the Balkans.” J. Clim.JLCLEL, 13(10), 1718–1732.
Chandramouli, V., Gupta, N., and Song, A. N. (2010). “Analyzing the change in trends of rainfall-runoff to the reservoir sites in Indiana using self organizing maps.” Proc., World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2010, ASCE, Reston, VA.
Chang, L. C., and Chang, F. J. (2001). “Intelligent control for modelling of real-time reservoir operation.” Hydrol. ProcessesHYPRE3, 15(9), 1621–1634.
Choi, J., Socolofsky, S. A., and Olivera, F. (2008). “Hourly disaggregation of daily rainfall in Texas using measured hourly precipitation at other locations.” J. Hydrol. Eng.JHYEFF, 13(6), 476–487.
Coulibaly, P., and Baldwin, C. K. (2005). “Nonstationary hydrological time series forecasting using nonlinear dynamic methods.” J. Hydrol. (Amsterdam, Neth.)JHYDA7, 307(1–4), 164–174.
Douglas, E. M., Vogel, R. M., and Kroll, C. N. (2000). “Trends in floods and low flows in the United States: Impact of spatial correlation.” J. Hydrol. (Amsterdam, Neth.)JHYDA7, 240(1–2), 90–105.
Fassnacht, S. R., and Derry, J. E. (2010). “Defining similar regions of snow in the Colorado River Basin using self-organizing maps.” Water Resour. Res.WRERAQ, 46(4), W04507.
Gueller, S. (2005). “Applied artificial intelligence to solve water resources and environmental problems.” Proc., World Water and Environmental Resources Congress 2005, ASCE, Reston, VA.
Haykin, S. (2003). Neural networks: A comprehensive foundation, Pearson Education, Singapore.
Hirsch, R. M., and Slack, J. R. (1984). “A nonparametric trend test for seasonal data with serial dependence.” Water Resour. Res.WRERAQ, 20(6), 727–732.
Isik, S., and Singh, V. P. (2008). “Hydrologic regionalization of watersheds in Turkey.” J. Hydrol. Eng.JHYEFF, 13(9), 824–834.
Jain, A., and Kumar, S. (2009). “Dissection of trained neural network hydrologic model architectures for knowledge extraction.” Water Resour. Res.WRERAQ, 45(7), W07420.
Kahya, E., Kalayci, S., and Piechota, T. C. (2008). “Streamflow regionalization: Case study of Turkey.” J. Hydrol. Eng.JHYEFF, 13(4), 205–214.
Karamouz, M., Aragjomejad, S., and Dezfuli, A. K. (2004). “Climate regionalizing for the assessment of ENSO, NAO and SST effect on regional meteorological drought: Application of fuzzy clustering.” Proc., World Water and Environmental Resources Congress 2004, ASCE, Reston, VA.
Kohonen, T. (1988). Self-organization and associative memory, Springer-Verlag, New York.
Kohonen, T. (1991). “Self-organizing maps: Optimization approaches.” Artificial neural networks, Kohonen, T., Makisara, K., Simula, O., and Kanga, J., eds., North-Holland, Amsterdam, 981–990.
Kohonen, T. (1997). Self-organizating maps, Springer-Verlag, New York.
Kumar, S., Merwade, V., Kam, J., and Thurner, K. (2009). “Streamflow trends in Indiana: Effects of long term persistence, precipitation and subsurface drains.” J. Hydrol. (Amsterdam, Neth.)JHYDA7, 374(1), 171–183.
Labadie, J. W. (2004). “Optimal operation of multi-reservoir systems: State of the art review.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage.JWRMD5, 130(2), 93–111.
Lischeid, G. (2001). “Investigating trends of hydrochemical time series of small catchments by artificial neural networks.” Phys. Chem. EarthPCEAAV, 26(1), 15–18.
Lund, J. R. (1996). “Operating rule optimization for Missouri River reservoir system.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage.JWRMD5, 122(4), 287–295.
Panda, U. C., Sundaray, S. K., Rath, P., Nayak, B. B., and Bhatta, D. (2006). “Application of factor and cluster analysis for characterization of river and estuarine water systems—A case study: Mahanadi River (India).” J. Hydrol. (Amsterdam, Neth.)JHYDA7, 331(3–4), 434–445.
Rao, A. R., and Srinivas, V. V. (2006a). “Regionalization of watersheds by fuzzy cluster analysis.” J. Hydrol. (Amsterdam)JHYDA7, 318(1–4), 57–79.
Rao, A. R., and Srinivas, V. V. (2006b). “Regionalization of watersheds by hybrid-cluster analysis.” J. Hydrol. (Amsterdam)JHYDA7, 318(1–4), 37–56.
Shukla, S., Mostaghimi, S., Petrauskas, B., and Smadi, M. A. (2000). “Multivariate technique for baseflow separation using water quality data.” J. Hydrol. Eng.JHYEFF, 5(2), 172–179.
Srinivas, V. V., Tripathi, S., Rao, A. R., and Govindaraju, S. R. (2008). “Regional flood frequency analysis by combining self-organizing feature map and fuzzy clustering.” J. Hydrol. (Amsterdam, Neth.)JHYDA7, 348(1–2), 148–166.
Vesanto, J., and Alhoniemi, E. (2000). “Clustering of the self-organizing map.” IEEE Trans. Neural NetworksITNNEP, 11(3), 586–600.
Xu, Y. P., and Tang, Y. K. (2009). “Decision rules of water resources management under uncertainty.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage.JWRMD5, 135(3), 149–159.
Yidana, S. M. (2010). “Groundwater classification using multivariate statistical methods: Birimian Basin, Ghana.” J. Environ. Eng.JOEEDU, 136(12), 1379–1388.
Zhang, X., Harvey, K. D., Hogg, W. D., and Yuzyk, T. R. (2001). “Trends in Canadian streamflow.” Water Resour. Res.WRERAQ, 37(4), 987–998.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Copyright
© 2012. American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Jan 17, 2011
Accepted: Sep 26, 2011
Published online: Sep 28, 2011
Published in print: Aug 1, 2012
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.