Risk Assessment of Regional Water Resources and Forewarning Model at Different Time Scales
Publication: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 18, Issue 9
Abstract
With the goal of making full use of water resources, a risk assessment of regional water resources and a forewarning model was studied in this paper. The model is built upon risk indexes in the system, proceeding from the whole structure and its component parts at different time scales. A long-term approach is taken to establish the long-term forewarning model of regional water resources with three levels of prediction, assessment, and forewarning. An hydrological model is employed to simulate the further value of an index. Set pair analysis method is adopted to calculate the connection degree of index risk and systematic risk through a multivariate connection number, while the weight of a single index is determined on the different influences and their respective connection degrees are updated. The comprehensive assessment is made by an assessment matrix with connection degree of comprehensive index. The comparison judging method is used to compartmentalize the warning degree of water resources on risk assessment comprehensive index with forewarning standards, and then the long-term local conditions for proposing the planning scheme of water resources. A real-time forewarning approach is also used to establish the real-time forewarning model of regional water resources, which introduces the real-time correction technique of the Kalman filter based on the long-term forewarning model, and then the real-time local conditions for proposing an emergency plan for water resources. The application results show that the proposed model has strong logical superiority and regional adaptability with a strict theoretical system, flexible methods, correct and reasonable results, and simple implementation, providing a new way for researching on the risk assessment and forewarning of regional water resources.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Acknowledgments
The authors would like to thank the support of the Major Special Technological Program of Water Pollution Control and Management (Program No. 2009ZX07106-001), the National Natural Science Funds of China (No. 51079037 and No. 70771035), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Research Foundation (S8112077001), and a project funded by the priority academic program development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions (PAPD). The authors also want to thank the anonymous referees for their helpful suggestions and corrections on the earlier draft of our paper according to which we improved the content.
References
Ardalan, A., et al. (2009). “Evaluation of Golestan province’s early warning system for flash floods, Iran, 2006–7.” Int. J. Biometeor., 53(3), 247–254.
Cai, X. M., Lasdon, L. L., and Michelson, A. (2004). “MichelsenGroup decision making in water resources planning using multiple objective analysis.” J. Hydrol. Eng., 130, 4–14.
Chen, S. Y. (2001). “Theory model and a method for qualitative assessment of sustainable development of regional water resources.” Eng. Sci., 3(2), 33–36.
Cheng, W. H., Wang, C. H., and Zhu, Y. (2006). Taihu basin model, Hohai University Press, Nanjing.
Davis, M. D. (2007). “Integrated water resource management and water sharing.” J. Hydrol. Eng., 133, 427–445.
Du, F. X., Liang, C., and Chen, T. T. (2006). “Projection pursuit model for comprehensive risk evaluating of water sources scarcity.” J. Basic Sci. Eng., 14(Supplement), 300–305.
He, R. M. (2007). “Study on the theory and evaluation method of regional water environment carrying capacity.” Doctoral dissertation, Hohai Univ., Nanjing, China.
Hedelin, B. (2007). “Criteria for the assessment of sustainable water management.” Environ. Manage., 39(2), 151–163.
Hipel, K. W., Fang, L. P., and Kilgour, D. M. (2008). “Decision support systems in water resources and environmental management.” J. Hydrol. Eng., 13, 716.
Huang, M. C., Xie, J. C., and Ruan, B. Q., et al. (2007). “Model for assessing water shortage risk based on support vector machine.” J. Hydraul. Eng., 38(3), 255–259.
Huang, X. W. (2000). Taihu basin planning and comprehensive treatment, China Water and Power Press, Beijing.
Jia, R. F. (2008). “Study on the early warning of regional water resources.” Doctoral dissertation, Hohai Univ., Nanjing, China.
Jia, Y. W., Wang, H., and Qiu, Y. Q., et al. (2006). “Generalized water resources assessment based on watershed hydrologic cycle model. Assessment approach.” J. Hydraul. Eng., 37(9), 1051–1055.
Jin, J. L., and Wei, Y. M. (2008). Complex system generalized intelligence assessment method and application, Science Press, Beijing.
Jing, P. (2005). “The fuzzy matter-element model for forewarning analysis of regional water resources sustainable development.” China Rural Water Hydropower, (8), 22–24.
Li, C. H., and Yang, Z. F. (2004). “Progress and some questions of water resources assessment.” J. Soil Water Conserv., 18(5), 189–192.
Li, D. S., Xu, K. L., and Ye, H. Y. (2009). “Discussion of set pair analysis assessment model based on multi-contact number.” Safety Sci. Technol., 5(4), 110–113.
Li, S. H. (2007). “Study on the assessment and early-warning of regional water resources security.” Doctoral dissertation, Hohai Univ., Nanjing, China.
Li, Y. B., and Chang, M. Q. (2009). “Assessment of water resources security and early warning.” China Rural Water Hydropower, (1), 1–4.
Liu, Z. H., Ma, J. Y., and Zhan, X. W., et al. (2003). “RS and GIS based decision support system for flood prevention in Xinjiang arid area.” Proc. SPIE, 5153.
Liuzzo, L., Noto, L. V., Vivoni, E. R., and La Loggia, G. (2010). “Basin-scale water resources assessment in Oklahoma under synthetic climate change scenarios using a fully distributed hydrologic model.” J. Hydrol. Eng., 15, 107.
Luo, J. G., Xie, J. C., and Ruan, B. Q. (2008). “Fuzzy comprehensive assessment model for water shortage risk based on entropy weight.” J. Hydraul. Eng., 39(9), 1092–1097.
Miller, M. A., Colby, A. C., Kanehl, P. D., and Blocksom, K. (2009). “Assessment of wadeable stream resources in the driftless area ecoregion in western Wisconsin using a probabilistic sampling design.” Environ. Monitor. Assess., 150(1–4), 75–89.
Qian, Z. Y., and Zhang, G. D. (2001). Comprehensive report on sustainable development of water resources strategic research and other thematic reports in China, China Water Power Press, Beijing.
Rui, X. F. (1996). “Connection number and its applications.” J. Jilin Teachers Coll., 17(8), 50–53.
Song, X. S., Yan, B. X., and He, Y. (2001). “Construction of pollution loss ratio model and its application to environmental quality assessment.” Acta Sci. Circumstant., 21(2), 229–233.
State Environmental Protection Administration. (1999). Surface Water Quality Standard (GBZB1-1999), Water Conservancy and Electric Power Press, Beijing.
State Environmental Protection Administration. (2002). Surface Water Environment Quality Standard (GB3838-2002), Water Conservancy and Electric Power Press, Beijing.
Su, P. C., and Ni, C. J. (2004). “Immune evolutionary algorithm and its application to quality assessment of water environment.” J. Mountain Sci., 22(4), 439–444.
Sun, X., Liu, L. J., and Ju, X. (2009). “Synergistic effect of social economy and water resources development in Tianjin.” Water Resour. Protect., 25(6), 81–89.
Tong, Y. W., Liu, Z. B., and Chang, H. (2008). “Application of set pair analysis in appraising the river water quality of Fuxin.” J. Safety Environ., 8(6), 84–86.
Wang, C. X., and Liang, Z. Y. (1983). “A fit method of logistic curve.” Acta Ecol. Sinica, 3(3), 288–296.
Wang, H. R., Qian, L. X., and Xu, X. Y., et al. (2009). “Model for evaluating water shortage risk based on fuzzy probability and its application.” J. Hydraul. Eng., 40(7), 813–821.
Wen, J. (2006). “Study on forecasting and warning system of the sustainable utilization of region water resources.” Doctoral dissertation, Hohai Univ., Nanjing, China.
Wen, J., Jin, J. L., and Wang, L., et al. (2006). “Theory framework of forewarning evaluation for regional water resources sustainable utilization.” Water Conserv. Sci. Technol. Econ., 12(8), 518–521.
Wilbur, W. G. (2004). “The main points of U.S. water resources assessment.” Express. Water. Resour. Hydropower Inf., 25(9), 7–8.
Yao, Z. M., and Zhang, J. Y. (2009). “Research progress of water resources assessment.” Water Resour. Res., 30 (2), 16–18.
Zhang, L. P., Zhu, Z. L., and Deng, L. J. (2004). “Present situation of and problems in water resource evaluation indicator systems in China.” Sci. Technol. Manage. Land Resour., 21(4), 5–9.
Zhao, J. (2007). Research on water resources value assessment in plain area of Taihu Basin. Master’s dissertation, Hohai Univ., Nanjing, China.
Zhao, K. Q. (1994). “Opposite classification, measurement and application based on set pair analysis.” Sci. Technol. Dialectics, 11(2), 26–30.
Zhao, K. Q. (1996). “Connection number and its applications.” J. Jilin Teachers Coll., 17(8), 50–53.
Zhou, H. R. (2000). “Study on ecological environmental quality as assessment index system of Xinjiang.” China Environ. Sci., 20(2), 150–153.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Copyright
© 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Jun 19, 2010
Accepted: Aug 5, 2011
Published online: Aug 8, 2011
Discussion open until: Jan 8, 2012
Published in print: Sep 1, 2013
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.