Abstract

Mudflows from the ongoing eruption of a mud volcano near Sidoarjo (East Java, Indonesia) have continued for more than 15 years and now cover an area of 8.2  km2 to a depth of more than 15 m. The mudflows are contained within a system of perimeter earthen levees/dykes that were constructed as a series of temporary defenses. The levees have marginal stability and limited freeboard due to the low shear strength and high compressibility of the 25-m-deep soft clay foundations, which have already resulted in ground deformations exceeding 7 m. In this paper, we analyze the deformations and stability of the downstream staged construction at a critical reach in order to (1) understand causes of a recent failure (2018); and (2) assess the current state of the levee following completion of a fifth construction stage (2019) that included a 35-m-wide, 4-m-high stabilization berm with an array of prefabricated vertical drains (PVDs) to accelerate consolidation. Our analyses used large-deformation elastoplastic finite-element analyses to simulate consolidation and lateral spreading of the foundation soils due to levee construction and mudflow loads. Levee stability was evaluated using numerical limit analyses for the deformed geometry and simulating changes in undrained strength with the consolidation state and direction of shearing at each stage of construction. The results were consistent with the magnitudes of the observed levee settlements and mechanism of failure; they also show the potential for an additional >2  m settlement over the next 5 years, even without considering creep of the clay or larger-scale processes controlling subsidence around the volcanic caldera. Future construction stages to contain the expected mudflow will require improvement of the mechanical properties of the alluvial clay to ensure adequate long-term freeboard.

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Data Availability Statement

The site investigation data (Fig. 3) and finite-element input data files for the deformation (Plaxis) and stability (Optum G2) analyses are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.

Acknowledgments

The authors are grateful to the Ministry of Education, Culture, Research, and Technology of the Republic of Indonesia, who provided funding for this research through the World Class University (WCU) Program managed by Institut Teknologi Bandung and partial support for the two MIT students who conducted the computational analyses (MVM and LB). Travel restrictions during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic have prevented travel to visit the site, but the PIs (Andrew Whittle and Ria Soemitro) are deeply appreciative of the help provided by Pusat Pengendalian Lumpur Sidoarjo (PPLS), the Sidoarjo Mud Control Center, Directorate General of Water Resources, Ministry of Public Works and Public Housing of Republic of Indonesia, for supporting site investigation work in the levee reach area (P67–P75) and for providing details of prior levee designs and construction.

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Go to Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering
Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering
Volume 148Issue 7July 2022

History

Received: Jun 3, 2021
Accepted: Feb 23, 2022
Published online: Apr 29, 2022
Published in print: Jul 1, 2022
Discussion open until: Sep 29, 2022

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Edmund K. Turner Professor, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139 (corresponding author). ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5358-4140. Email: [email protected]
Michael V. Martello, S.M.ASCE
Graduate Research Assistant, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139.
Undergraduate Research Opportunities Program Student, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8116-0158
Ria Asih Aryani Soemitro
Professor of Geotechnical Engineering, Dept. of Civil Engineering, Institut Teknol Sepuluh Nopember, Kampus ITS Sukolilo, Surabaya 60111, Indonesia.
Trihanyndio Rendy Satrya https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5452-7009
Lecturer, Dept. of Civil Engineering, Institut Teknol Sepuluh Nopember, Kampus ITS Sukolilo, Surabaya 60111, Indonesia. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5452-7009
Dwa Desa Warnana
Lecturer, Dept. of Geophysical Engineering, Institut Teknol Sepuluh Nopember, Kampus ITS Sukolilo, Surabaya 60111, Indonesia.
Mahendra Andiek Maulana
Lecturer, Dept. of Civil Engineering, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember, Kampus ITS Sukolilo, Surabaya 60111, Indonesia.

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