Evaluating Uncertainty Associated with Engineering Judgement in Predicting the Lateral Response of Conductors
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Volume 148, Issue 5
Abstract
This paper presents the results from a prediction event, organized by the University of Western Australia (UWA) and the National Geotechnical Centrifuge Facility (NGCF), and performed as part of the International Symposium on Frontiers in Offshore Geotechnics to assess uncertainty in predicting the monotonic and cyclic lateral response of conductors. Geotechnical professionals from around the world were invited to predict the response of a model conductor (a flexible pile) subjected to a series of loading sequences in a centrifuge. A normally consolidated fine-grained soil was used in the tests, which was characterized by soil elements and in-flight T-bar penetrometer testing. While some participants provided accurate predictions, the mean response was an overestimate of the monotonic and cyclic load at the pile head, which was significant for large and very small displacements. An analysis of the submissions is presented to quantify the variability of the predictions received, assess the consequences of each design, and relay the uncertainty associated with engineering judgment in design.
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Data Availability Statement
Some or all data, models, or code generated or used during the study are proprietary or confidential in nature and may only be provided with restrictions (e.g. anonymized data). A brief of the cyclic loading prediction event with part of the information provided to the participants can be accessed in: https://www.isfog2020.org/sites/isfog.asce.org/2020/files/inline-files/ISFOG%20conductor%20prediction%20event_V1.0.pdf.
Acknowledgments
The authors would like to thank all the participants for their contribution and the organizers of ISFOG (2020) for their support of this prediction event. The first author is supported by the ARC Industrial Transformation Research Hub for Offshore Floating Facilities which is funded by the Australian Research Council, Shell Australia, Woodside Energy, Bureau Veritas, and Lloyd’s Register (IH140100012). The fourth author leads the Shell Chair in Offshore Engineering research team at the University of Western Australia, which is sponsored by Shell Australia. The UWA authors thank the NGCF team for their support with this challenging test campaign.
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Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering
Volume 148 • Issue 5 • May 2022
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This work is made available under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
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Received: Feb 23, 2021
Accepted: Dec 1, 2021
Published online: Feb 17, 2022
Published in print: May 1, 2022
Discussion open until: Jul 17, 2022
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