Practical Considerations Regarding the Probability of Liquefaction in Engineering Design
Publication: Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering
Volume 147, Issue 8
Abstract
Engineering practitioners have widely adopted probabilistic methods for estimating liquefaction triggering hazards. Unfortunately, incorrect application of these methods has become commonly accepted in the United States and throughout many parts of the world. In this paper, we describe two specific incorrect applications of probabilistic liquefaction triggering prediction models that are commonly used in engineering practice: (1) improper parametric uncertainty characterization when using the models, and (2) the application of a conservative factor of safety thresholds to deterministic cyclic resistance ratio boundaries. These two practices and their implications are discussed, and illustrative examples and figures are presented. We also discuss the apparent inconsistencies in what constitutes an acceptable risk for liquefaction hazards and other significant geotechnical hazards, such as slope stability. We demonstrate the need to collectively consider the likelihoods of all aspects of liquefaction hazard problems—susceptibility, initiation, and effects—when calculating and considering liquefaction risk. Finally, we point to the concept and framework of performance-based earthquake engineering as a logical and objective path forward for dealing with the challenges raised in this study.
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Data Availability Statement
Data developed and used in this study are available upon reasonable request made to the authors.
Acknowledgments
The authors would like to acknowledge and thank Mr. Nicholas Harman (South Carolina DOT, Columbia, South Carolina) for his discussion and suggestions, which have greatly augmented this work. We also thank Dr. Jorge Meneses (RMA Group, Inc., San Diego, California) for his informal review of our manuscript and his helpful comments. We also acknowledge and thank the anonymous reviewers whose constructive review comments greatly improved the paper.
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Published In
Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering
Volume 147 • Issue 8 • August 2021
Copyright
© 2021 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Jun 24, 2020
Accepted: Mar 15, 2021
Published online: May 25, 2021
Published in print: Aug 1, 2021
Discussion open until: Oct 25, 2021
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