Selecting the Optimal Factor of Safety or Probability of Liquefaction Triggering for Engineering Projects Based on Misprediction Costs
Publication: Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering
Volume 147, Issue 6
Abstract
In deterministic evaluations, liquefaction triggering potential is assessed by comparing the computed factor-of-safety () against liquefaction triggering to some minimal acceptable . While some guidelines are available for selecting the minimal acceptable , there is no standard value. Herein, Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analyses are used to develop an approach for selecting the optimal minimal acceptable (i.e., optimal ) for a project based on the relative costs of mispredictions. Utilizing different liquefaction triggering models and their associated case-history databases, relationships are established between the optimal and the ratio of the cost of a false-positive prediction to the cost of a false-negative prediction (i.e., cost ratio, ). Also, by combining the data from different models, a “generic” relationship is developed that “averages out” the degree of conservatism inherent to the individual triggering models. Similarly, relationships relating the optimal probability of liquefaction triggering () to are developed for the probabilistic variants of the triggering models, as well as a generic curve.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Data Availability Statement
Some or all data, models, or code that support the findings of this paper are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.
Acknowledgments
The authors greatly acknowledge the funding support through the National Science Foundation (NSF) Grant Nos. CMMI-1435494, CMMI-1751216, CMMI-1825189, and CMMI-1937984, as well as Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center (PEER) Grant No. 1132-NCTRBM and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Award No. G18AP-00006. However, any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of NSF, PEER, or USGS.
References
Boulanger, R. W., and I. M. Idriss. 2012. “Probabilistic standard penetration test-based liquefaction-triggering procedure.” J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng. 138 (10): 1185–1195. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)GT.1943-5606.0000700.
Boulanger, R. W., and I. M. Idriss. 2014. CPT and SPT based liquefaction triggering procedures. Davis, CA: Center for Geotechnical Modelling.
BSSC (Building Seismic Safety Council). 2009. NEHRP recommended seismic provisions for new buildings and other structures (FEMA P-750). Washington, DC: Federal Emergency Management Agency.
Cetin, K. O., R. B. Seed, A. Der Kiureghian, K. Tokimatsu, L. F. R. E. HarderKayen, R. Kayen, and R. E. S. Moss. 2004. “Standard penetration test-based probabilistic and deterministic assessment of seismic soil liquefaction potential.” J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng. 130 (12): 1314–1340. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1090-0241(2004)130:12(1314).
Cetin, K. O., R. B. Seed, R. E. Kayen, R. E. S. Moss, H. T. Bilge, M. Ilgac, and K. Chowdhury. 2018. “SPT-based probabilistic and deterministic assessment of seismic soil liquefaction triggering hazard.” Soil Dyn. Earthquake Eng. 115 (Dec): 698–709. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soildyn.2018.09.012.
Fawcett, T. 2005. “An introduction to ROC analysis.” Pattern Recognit. Lett. 27 (8): 861–874. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.patrec.2005.10.010.
Green, R. A., et al. 2020. “Liquefaction hazard in the groningen region of the Netherlands due to induced seismicity.” J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng. 146 (8): 04020068. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)GT.1943-5606.0002286.
Green, R. A., and J. J. Bommer. 2019. “What is the smallest earthquake magnitude that needs to be considered in assessing liquefaction hazard?” Earthquake Spectra 35 (3): 1441–1464. https://doi.org/10.1193/032218EQS064M.
Green, R. A., J. J. Bommer, A. Rodriguez-Marek, B. W. Maurer, P. Stafford, B. Edwards, P. P. Kruiver, G. de Lange, and J. van Elk. 2019. “Addressing limitations in existing ‘simplified’ liquefaction triggering evaluation procedures: Application to induced seismicity in the Groningen gas field.” Bull. Earthquake Eng. 17 (3): 4539–4557. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-018-0489-3.
Green, R. A., B. W. Maurer, M. Cubrinovski, and B. A. Bradley. 2015. “Assessment of the relative predictive capabilities of CPT-based liquefaction evaluation procedures: Lessons learned from the 2010–2011 Canterbury earthquake sequence.” In Proc., 6th Int. Conf. on Earthquake Geotechnical Engineering. London: International Society for Soil Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering.
Green, R. A., B. W. Maurer, and S. van Ballegooy. 2018. “The influence of the non-liquefied crust on the severity of surficial liquefaction manifestations: Case history from the 2016 valentine’s day earthquake in New Zealand.” In Proc., Geotechnical Earthquake Engineering and Soil Dynamics V (GEESD V), 21–32. Reston, VA: ASCE.
Green, R. A., S. Upadhyaya, C. M. Wood, B. W. Maurer, B. R. Cox, L. Wotherspoon, B. A. Bradley, and M. Cubrinovski. 2017. “Relative efficacy of CPT- versus Vs-based simplified liquefaction evaluation procedures.” In Proc., 19th Int. Conf. on Soil Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering. London: International Society for Soil Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering.
Idriss, I. M., and R. W. Boulanger. 2008. Soil liquefaction during earthquakes. Oakland, CA: Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.
Idriss, I. M., and R. W. Boulanger. 2010. SPT-based liquefaction triggering procedures. Davis, CA: Univ. of California at Davis.
Iwasaki, T., F. Tatsuoka, K. Tokida, and S. Yasuda. 1978. “A practical method for assessing soil liquefaction potential based on case studies at various sites in Japan.” In Proc., 2nd Int. Conf. on Microzonation. Reston, VA: ASCE.
Kayen, R., R. Moss, E. Thompson, R. Seed, K. Cetin, A. Kiureghian, Y. Tanaka, and K. Tokimatsu. 2013. “Shear-wave velocity–based probabilistic and deterministic assessment of seismic soil liquefaction potential.” J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng. 139 (3): 407–419. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)GT.1943-5606.0000743.
Kramer, S. L., and R. T. Mayfield. 2007. “Return period of soil liquefaction.” J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng. 133 (7): 802–813. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1090-0241(2007)133:7(802).
Martin, G. R., and M. Lew. 1999. Recommended procedures for implementation of DMG Special Publication 117 guidelines for analysing and mitigating liquefaction in California. Los Angeles: Univ. of Southern California.
Maurer, B. W., R. A. Green, M. Cubrinovski, and B. Bradley. 2015a. “Fines-content effects on liquefaction hazard evaluation for infrastructure during the 2010–2011 Canterbury, New Zealand earthquake sequence.” Soil Dyn. Earthquake Eng. 76 (Sep): 58–68. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soildyn.2014.10.028.
Maurer, B. W., R. A. Green, M. Cubrinovski, and B. Bradley. 2015b. “Assessment of CPT-based methods for liquefaction evaluation in a liquefaction potential index framework.” Géotechnique 65 (5): 328–336. https://doi.org/10.1680/geot.SIP.15.P.007.
Maurer, B. W., R. A. Green, M. Cubrinovski, and B. Bradley. 2015c. “Calibrating the liquefaction severity number (LSN) for varying misprediction economies: A case study in Christchurch, New Zealand.” In Proc., 6th Int. Conf. on Earthquake Geotechnical Engineering. London: International Society for Soil Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering.
Maurer, B. W., R. A. Green, and O.-D. S. Taylor. 2015d. “Moving towards an improved index for assessing liquefaction hazard: Lessons from historical data.” Soils Found. 55 (4): 778–787.
Maurer, B. W., R. A. Green, S. van Ballegooy, B. A. Bradley, and S. Upadhyaya. 2017a. Performance comparison of probabilistic and deterministic liquefaction triggering models for hazard assessment in 23 global earthquakes, 31–42. Reston, VA: ASCE.
Maurer, B. W., R. A. Green, S. van Ballegooy, and L. Wotherspoon. 2017b. “Assessing liquefaction susceptibility using the CPT soil behavior type index.” In Proc., 3rd Int. Conf. on Performance-Based Design in Earthquake Geotechnical Engineering. London: International Society for Soil Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering.
Maurer, B. W., R. A. Green, S. van Ballegooy, and L. Wotherspoon. 2019. “Development of region-specific soil behavior type index correlations for evaluating liquefaction hazard in Christchurch, New Zealand.” Soil Dyn. Earthq. Eng. 117 (4): 96–105. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soildyn.2018.04.059.
Moss, R. E. S., R. B. Seed, R. E. Kayen, J. P. Stewart, A. Der Kiureghian, and K. O. Cetin. 2006. “CPT-based probabilistic and deterministic assessment of in situ seismic soil liquefaction potential.” J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng. 132 (8): 1032–1051. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1090-0241(2006)132:8(1032).
Oommen, T., L. G. Baise, and R. Vogel. 2010. “Validation and application of empirical liquefaction models.” J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng. 136 (12): 1618–1633. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)GT.1943-5606.0000395.
Robertson, P. K., and C. E. Wride. 1998. “Evaluating cyclic liquefaction potential using cone penetration test.” Can. Geotech. J. 35 (3): 442–459. https://doi.org/10.1139/t98-017.
Seed, H. B., and I. M. Idriss. 1971. “Simplified procedure for evaluating soil liquefaction potential.” J. Soil Mech. Found. Div. 97 (9): 1249–1273.
Upadhyaya, S., R. A. Green, B. W. Maurer, and A. Rodriguez-Marek. 2019. “Selecting factor of safety against liquefaction for design based on cost considerations.” In Proc., 7th Int. Conf. on Earthquake Geotechnical Engineering. London: International Society for Soil Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering.
Upadhyaya, S., B. W. Maurer, R. A. Green, and A. Rodriguez-Marek. 2018. Effect of non-liquefiable high fines-content, high plasticity soils on liquefaction potential index (LPI) performance, 191–198. Reston, VA: ASCE.
van Ballegooy, S., P. Malan, V. Lacrosse, M. E. Jacka, M. Cubrinovski, J. D. Bray, T. D. O’Rourke, S. A. Crawford, and H. Cowan. 2014. “Assessment of liquefaction-induced land damage for residential Christchurch.” Earthquake Spectra 30 (1): 31–55. https://doi.org/10.1193/031813EQS070M.
Whitman, R. V. 1971. “Resistance of soil to liquefaction and settlement.” Soils Found. 11 (4): 59–68. https://doi.org/10.3208/sandf1960.11.4_59.
Zhu, J., L. G. Baise, and E. M. Thompson. 2017. “An updated geospatial liquefaction model for global application.” Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 107 (3): 1365–1385. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120160198.
Zou, K. H. 2007. “Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) literature research.” Accessed March 10, 2016. http://www.spl.harvard.edu/archive/spl-pre2007/pages/ppl/zou/roc.html.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Copyright
© 2021 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Mar 30, 2020
Accepted: Jan 8, 2021
Published online: Mar 17, 2021
Published in print: Jun 1, 2021
Discussion open until: Aug 17, 2021
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.