Statistical Model for Dam-Settlement Prediction and Structural-Health Assessment
Publication: Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering
Volume 144, Issue 9
Abstract
This paper considers a hydrostatic–seasonal–time (HST) statistical model for predicting the settlement behavior of a concrete-faced rockfill dam (CFRD) during operation. The constituents of the model are innovatively related to viscoelastic–plastic material model components, with the novel addition of considering unloading–reloading behavior when determining the model parameters. The statistical model developed considers both load-related and time-related deformation behavior of rockfill and CFRDs. The discussion compares different functions from the literature describing time-dependent deformation of rockfill dams and CFRDs and emphasizes cautious selection of predictors to enhance any statistical model’s credibility. The model is applied to the case of the 200-m-high Kárahnjúkar CFRD. The aim of the statistical analysis is first to create a prediction model for short- and long-term settlements of the dam, and second to extract behavioral patterns for structural-health monitoring applications. This is important for the operational safety of large dams, and thus the resilience and sustainability of related civil infrastructure systems.
Formats available
You can view the full content in the following formats:
Acknowledgments
The support and input by the late Professor Ragnar Sigbjörnsson is gratefully acknowledged. The authors thank Landsvirkjun for access to the monitoring data.
References
Alonso, E. E., and L. A. Oldecop. 2007. “Theoretical investigation of the time-dependent behaviour of rockfill.” Géotechnique 57 (3): 289–301. https://doi.org/10.1680/geot.2007.57.3.289.
Augustesen, A., M. Liingaard, and P. V. Lade. 2004. “Evaluation of time dependent behavior of soils.” Int. J. Geomech. 4 (3): 137–156. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1532-3641(2004)4:3(137).
Bjerrum, L. 1967. “Engineering geology of Norwegian normally-consolidated marine clays as related to settlements of buildings.” Géotechnique 17 (2): 83–118. https://doi.org/10.1680/geot.1967.17.2.83.
Byrne, P. M., H. Cheung, and L. Yan. 1987. “Soil parameters for deformation analysis of sand masses.” Can. Geotech. J. 24 (3): 366–376. https://doi.org/10.1139/t87-047.
Chouinard, L. E., D. W. Bennett, and N. Feknous. 1995. “Statistical analysis of monitoring data for concrete arch dams.” J. Perform. Constr. Facil. 9 (4): 286–301. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0887-3828(1995)9:4(286).
Chouinard, L. E., and V. Roy. 2006. “Performance of statistical models for dam monitoring data.” In Proc., Joint Int. Conf. on Computing and Decision Making in Civil and Building Engineering. Montréal, Canada.
De Sortis, A., and P. Paoliani. 2007. “Statistical analysis and structural identification in concrete dam monitoring.” Eng. Struct. 29 (1): 110–120. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engstruct.2006.04.022.
Dolezalova, M., and I. Hladik. 2011. “Constitutive models for simulation of field performance of dams.” Int. J. Geomech. 11 (6): 477–489. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)GM.1943-5622.0000039.
Duncan, J. M., P. Byrne, K. S. Wong, and P. Mabry. 1980. Strength, stress-strain and bulk modulus parameters for finite element analysis of stresses and movements in soil masses. Berkley, CA: Dept. of Civil Engineering, Univ. of California.
Farrar, C. R., and N. A. J. Lieven. 2007. “Damage prognosis: The future of structural health monitoring.” Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Math. Phys. Eng. Sci. 365 (1851): 623–632. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2006.1927.
Ferry, S., and G. Willm. 1958. “Méthodes d’analyse et de surveillance de déplacements observés par le moyen de pendules dans les barrages.” In Proc., 6th Int. Congress on Large Dams. Paris: International Commission on Large Dams.
Fitzpatrick, M. D., B. A. Cole, F. L. Kinstler, and B. P. Knoop. 1985. “Design of concrete-faced rockfill dams.” In Proc., Symp. on Concrete Face Rockfill Dams: Design, Construction, and Performance, 410–434. New York: ASCE.
Gan, L., Z. Shen, and L. Xu. 2014. “Long-term deformation analysis of the Jiudianxia concrete-faced rockfill dam.” Arab. J. Sci. Eng. 39 (3): 1589–1598. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13369-013-0788-6.
Haifanga, L., and Z. Yinqi. 2012. “Creep rate and creep model of rockfill.” Procedia Eng. 28: 796–802. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proeng.2012.01.812.
Hu, D., Z. Zhou, Y. Li, and X. Wu. 2011. “Dam safety analysis based on stepwise regression model.” Adv. Mater. Res. 204–210: 2158–2161. https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.204-210.2158.
Hunter, G., and R. Fell. 2003. “Rockfill modulus and settlement of concrete face rockfill dams.” J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng. 129 (10): 909–917. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1090-0241(2003)129:10(909).
ICOLD (International Commission on Large Dams). 2012. Guidelines for use of numerical models in dam engineering. Paris: ICOLD.
Janbu, N. 1963. “Soil compressibility as determined by oedometer and triaxial tests.” In Vol. 4 of Proc., 3rd European Conf. on Soil Mechanics and Foundation Engineering, 19–25. Wiesbaden, Germany: German Society for Soil Mechanics and Foundation Engineering.
Janbu, N. 1969. “The resistance concept applied to deformations of soils.” In Vol. 1 of Proc., 7th Int. Conf. on Soil Mechanics and Foundation Engineering, 191–196. Mexico City: Sociedad Mexicana de Macanica.
Janbu, N. 1985. “Soil models in offshore engineering.” Géotechnique 35 (3): 241–281. https://doi.org/10.1680/geot.1985.35.3.241.
Justo, J. L., and P. Durand. 2000. “Settlement-time behaviour of granular embankments.” Int. J. Numer. Anal. Methods Geomech. 24 (3): 281–303. https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1096-9853(200003)24:3%3C281::AID-NAG66%3E3.0.CO;2-S.
Lade, P. V., C. D. Liggio, and J. Nam. 2009. “Strain rate, creep, and stress drop-creep experiments on crushed coral sand.” J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng. 135 (7): 941–953. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)GT.1943-5606.0000067.
Léger, P., and M. Leclerc. 2007. “Hydrostatic, temperature, time-displacement model for concrete dams.” J. Eng. Mech. 133 (3): 267–277. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9399(2007)133:3(267).
Mata, J. 2011. “Interpretation of concrete dam behaviour with artificial neural network and multiple linear regression models.” Eng. Struct. 33 (3): 903–910. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engstruct.2010.12.011.
Ohde, J. 1939. “Zur theorie der druckverteilung im Baugrund.” Der Bauingenieur. 20 (33–34): 451–459.
Oyen, M. L., and R. F., Cook. 2003. “Load-displacement behaviour during sharp indentation of viscous-elastic plastic-plastic materials.” J. Mater. Res. 18 (01): 139–150. https://doi.org/10.1557/JMR.2003.0020.
Rencher, A. C. 2002. Methods of multivariate analysis. 2nd ed. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley.
Saboya, F., and P. M. Byrne. 1993. “Parameters for stress and deformation analysis of rockfill dams.” Can. Geotech. J. 30 (4): 690–701. https://doi.org/10.1139/t93-058.
Sigtryggsdóttir, F. G., J. T. Snæbjörnsson, R. Sigbjörnsson, and L. Grande. 2013. “Rockfill dam settlement data: Processing and statistical analysis.” In Proc., 3rd Int. Symp. on Rockfill Dams, Hydropower, CHINCOLD 2013. China: Chinese National Committee on Large Dams and China Society for Hydropower Engineering.
Soroush, A., and R. Jannatiaghdam. 2012. “Behavior of rockfill materials in triaxial compression testing.” Int. J. Civ. Eng. 10 (2): 153–183.
Stewart, H. E. 1986. “Permanent strains from cyclic variable-amplitude loadings.” J. Geotech. Eng. 112 (6): 646–660. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9410(1986)112:6(646).
Willm, G., and N. Beaujoint. 1967. “Les méthodes de surveillance des barrages au service de la production hydraulique d’Électricité de France. Problèmes anciens et solutions nouvelles.” In Vol. 3 of Proc., 9th ICOLD Congress, 529–50. Paris: International Commission on Large Dams.
Worden, K., C. R. Farrar, G. Manson, and G. Park. 2007. “The fundamental axioms of structural health monitoring.” Proc. R. Soc. Math. Phys. Eng. Sci. 463 (2082): 1639–1664. https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2007.1834.
Wu, H., R. Li, and X. Wu. 2009. “Rockfill dam deformation monitoring model considering rheology effect and stress path.” In Proc., 1st Int. Symp. on Rockfill Dams. Beijing: Chinese National Committee on Large Dams and the Brazilian Committee on Large Dams.
Zhou, F., Y. Wu, and M. GuliMire. 2009. “Analysis of settlement deformation of concrete face rockfill Wuluwati Dam.” In Proc., 1st Int. Symp. on Rockfill Dams. Beijing: Chinese National Committee on Large Dams and the Brazilian Committee on Large Dams.
Zhou, W., G. Ma, and C. Hu. 2011. “Long-term deformation control theory of high concrete face rockfill dam and application.” In Proc., 2011 Asia-Pacific Power and Energy Engineering Conf. (APPEEC), 1–4. New York: IEEE.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering
Volume 144 • Issue 9 • September 2018
Copyright
This work is made available under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license, http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
History
Received: Jul 1, 2017
Accepted: Feb 7, 2018
Published online: Jun 27, 2018
Published in print: Sep 1, 2018
Discussion open until: Nov 27, 2018
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.