Probabilistic Evaluation of the Effects of Uncertainty in Transient Seepage Parameters
Publication: Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering
Volume 143, Issue 9
Abstract
This paper investigates the effect of uncertainty in the hydraulic conductivity and van Genuchten fitting parameters used for unsaturated flow modeling of transient seepage through embankment dams. Random variables of the parameters are generated using a number generation algorithm and are then coupled with the finite element software SEEP/W. Stochastic analyses are conducted via Monte Carlo simulation. The statistical and probabilistic properties of the seepage rate passing through different embankment dams and transient boundary conditions are assessed and the degree of uncertainty associated with the seepage is evaluated. It is found that the probabilistic properties of the seepage strongly depend upon the boundary conditions of the dam. The seepage through embankment dams is found to follow the generalized extreme value or three-parameter lognormal distributions.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
References
Ahmed, A. (2008). “Saturated–unsaturated flow through leaky dams.” J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng., 1564–1568.
Bennion, D. W., and Griffiths, J. C. (1965). “A stochastic model for predicting variations in reservoir rock properties.” Soc. Pet. Eng. J., 6(1), 9–16.
Bulnes, A. C. (1946). “An application of statistical methods to core analysis data of dolomitic limestone.” Trans. AIME, 165(1), 223–240.
Calamak, M. (2014). “Uncertainty based analysis of seepage through earth-fill dams.” Ph.D. thesis, Dept. of Civil Engineering, Middle East Technical Univ., Ankara, Turkey.
Carsel, R. F., and Parrish, R. S. (1988). “Developing joint probability distributions of soil water retention characteristics.” Water Resour. Res., 24(5), 755–769.
Cho, S. E. (2012). “Probabilistic analysis of seepage that considers the spatial variability of permeability for an embankment on soil foundation.” Eng. Geol., 133–134, 30–39.
Chu-Agor, M., Wilson, G., and Fox, G. (2008). “Numerical modeling of bank instability by seepage erosion undercutting of layered streambanks.” J. Hydrol. Eng., 1133–1145.
Elkateb, T., Chalaturnyk, R., and Robertson, P. K. (2003). “An overview of soil heterogeneity: Quantification and implications on geotechnical field problems.” Can. Geotech. J., 40(1), 1–15.
Foster, D., Bole, D., and Deere, T. (2014). “Rio Grande Dam—Seepage reduction design and construction.” Rocky Mountain Geo-Conf. 2014, ASCE, Reston, VA, 31–58.
Geo-Slope International Ltd. (2013). Seepage modeling with SEEP/W, Calgary, Canada.
Law, J. (1944). “A statistical approach to the interstitial heterogeneity of sand reservoirs.” Trans. AIME, 155(1), 202–222.
Le, T. M. H., Gallipoli, D., Sanchez, M., and Wheeler, S. J. (2012). “Stochastic analysis of unsaturated seepage through randomly heterogeneous earth embankments.” Int. J. Numer. Anal. Methods Geomech., 36(8), 1056–1076.
Li, W., Lu, Z., and Zhang, D. (2009). “Stochastic analysis of unsaturated flow with probabilistic collocation method.” Water Resour. Res., 45(8), W08425.
Malkawi, H. A. I., Hassan, W. F., and Abdulla, F. A. (2000). “Uncertainty and reliability analysis applied to slope stability.” Struct. Saf., 22(2), 161–187.
Money, R. (2006). “Comparison of 2D and 3D seepage model results for excavation near Levee Toe.” GeoCongress 2006, ASCE, Reston, VA, 1–4.
Ng, C. W. W., and Shi, Q. (1998a). “A numerical investigation of the stability of unsaturated soil slopes subjected to transient seepage.” Comput. Geotech., 22(1), 1–28.
Ng, C. W. W., and Shi, Q. (1998b). “Influence of rainfall intensity and duration on slope stability in unsaturated soils.” Q. J. Eng. Geol., 31(2), 105–113.
Oh, W. T., and Vanapalli, S. K. (2010). “Influence of rain infiltration on the stability of compacted soil slopes.” Comput. Geotech., 37(5), 649–657.
Phoon, K., Santoso, A., and Quek, S. (2010). “Probabilistic analysis of soil-water characteristic curves.” J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng., 445–455.
SoilVision [Computer software]. SoilVision Systems Ltd., Saskatoon, SK, Canada.
Soleymani, S., and Akhtarpur, A. (2011). “Seepage analysis for Shurijeh reservoir dam using finite element method.” ASCE Proc., ASCE, Reston, VA.
Tan, T., Phoon, K., and Chong, P. (2004). “Numerical study of finite element method based solutions for propagation of wetting fronts in unsaturated soil.” J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng., 254–263.
van Genuchten, M. T. (1980). “A closed-form equation for predicting the hydraulic conductivity of unsaturated soils.” Soil Sci. Soc. Am. J., 44(5), 892–898.
Warren, J. E., and Price, H. S. (1961). “Flow in heterogeneous porous media.” Soc. Pet. Eng. J., 1(3), 153–169.
Wu, T. H., Vyas, S. K., and Chang, N. Y. (1973). “Probabilistic analysis of seepage.” J. Soil Mech. Found. Div., 99(4), 323–340.
Zeng, C., Wang, Q., and Zhang, F. (2012). “Evaluation of hydraulic parameters obtained by different measurement methods for heterogeneous gravel soil.” Terr. Atmos. Oceanic Sci., 23(5), 585–596.
Zhang, L. L., Zhang, L. M., and Tang, W. H. (2005). “Rainfall-induced slope failure considering variability of soil properties.” Géotechnique, 55(2), 183–188.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Copyright
©2017 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Apr 3, 2015
Accepted: Mar 3, 2017
Published online: Jun 1, 2017
Published in print: Sep 1, 2017
Discussion open until: Nov 1, 2017
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.