Stratified Response Surfaces for System Probabilistic Evaluation of Slopes
Publication: Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering
Volume 138, Issue 11
Abstract
The need for probabilistic slope analysis that takes into account the uncertainty of soil properties has been acknowledged by the geotechnical profession. Traditionally, probabilistic slope analysis involves only single-mode failure that is considered based on the critical slip surface. This may result in underestimating the failure probability. In contrast, system reliability analysis for slopes is deemed more rational. This study aims at improving the existing methods of slope reliability analysis by considering system reliability. A stratified response surface method (stratified RSM) is proposed to describe the performance functions of possible failure modes. The proposed method differs from conventional response-surface–based slope reliability analysis (which constructs a single approximate performance function) by generating a group of (stratified) response surfaces. Based on these stratified response surfaces, system reliability analysis can be efficiently carried out by means of either a first-order reliability method (FORM) or Monte Carlo simulations. The efficient FORM based on the concept of a dispersion ellipsoid in the space of the original variables is used. Application of the proposed approach to probabilistic assessment of slopes is illustrated by case studies, and the results obtained are compared with Monte Carlo simulations.
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Published In
Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering
Volume 138 • Issue 11 • November 2012
Pages: 1398 - 1406
Copyright
© 2012 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Apr 29, 2011
Accepted: Feb 9, 2012
Published online: Feb 11, 2012
Published in print: Nov 1, 2012
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