Estimating Fully Probabilistic Seismic Sliding Displacements of Slopes from a Pseudoprobabilistic Approach
Publication: Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering
Volume 137, Issue 3
Abstract
Permanent sliding displacements are used to evaluate the seismic stability of earth slopes, and current practice utilizes a pseudoprobabilistic approach to predict the expected sliding displacement. The pseudoprobabilistic approach specifies a design ground-motion level based on a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and a specified hazard level (e.g., 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years), but the displacement is predicted deterministically based on the design ground-motion level. The fully probabilistic approach develops a hazard curve for sliding displacement, and it is used to assess the displacement of the slope for a given hazard level. Comparisons of the fully probabilistic and pseudoprobabilistic approaches indicate that the pseudoprobabilistic analysis provides nonconservative estimates of sliding displacement in most cases. This paper presents a modification to the pseudoprobabilistic approach that provides displacement values more consistent with the fully probabilistic approach. This modification involves specifying a displacement greater than the median, in order to take into account the uncertainty in the displacement prediction. The appropriate value of displacement above the median is a function of the value and the model used to predict the displacement.
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Acknowledgments
The writers would like to thank Dr. Peter Stafford of Imperial College and an anonymous reviewer for providing excellent technical comments on the manuscript. Ms. Teresa Howard of the University of Texas Center for Space Research drafted Fig. 4. Financial support for this work was provided by the United States Geological Survey (USGS), Department of the Interior, under Grant USDI08HQGR0024. The views and conclusions contained in this document are those of the writers and should not be interpreted as necessarily representing the official policies, either expressed or implied, of the United States government.
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Published In
Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering
Volume 137 • Issue 3 • March 2011
Pages: 208 - 217
Copyright
© 2011 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Sep 17, 2009
Accepted: Aug 23, 2010
Published online: Feb 15, 2011
Published in print: Mar 1, 2011
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