Quantitative Risk Assessment of Cut-Slope Projects under Construction
Publication: Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering
Volume 136, Issue 12
Abstract
In some cut-slope projects landslide is a common problem during construction due to unfavorable geomorphological and geomechanical conditions. It is necessary to do a quantitative assessment of the risk posed by landslide before determining the budget or tender price. This paper outlines a general procedure for doing this, followed by an example to demonstrate the approach in comparison to a known failure. Finite-element analyses identify the most dangerous landslide scenario among all construction steps. The slope failure probability is then estimated using reliability theory based on the most dangerous construction step. After identifying the potential failure surface and estimating the volume of the sliding mass, the runnout behavior of sliding mass is simulated to delimit the extent of likely impacted area. Then, the exposed elements at risk and their vulnerabilities are identified and analyzed. The landslide risk is assessed quantitatively for three types of consequences: casualties, economic loss, and time overrun. Compared with actual consequences, the estimation results were in acceptable agreement with the case study. The paper demonstrates that it is feasible to analyze the risk associated with landslides during construction of cut-slopes.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Acknowledgments
This research was sponsored by National Natural-Science Foundation of China (Grant No. NNSFC40772179) and Western Science and Technology Project of Ministry of Communications (Grant No. UNSPECIFIED2006318799107). Grateful appreciation is expressed for these supports. This paper was written while the first writer was a guest researcher at the International Centre for Geohazards (ICG) in Oslo, Norway. The support provided by ICG during this period is gratefully acknowledged.
References
Amatruda, G., et al. (2004a) “A key approach: The IMIRILAND project method.” Identification and mitigation of large landslide risks in Europe, European Commission fifth framework programme IMIRILAND project, Balkema, Rotterdam, The Netherlands, 13–43.
Amatruda, G., et al. (2004b). “The Oselitzenbach landslide.” Identification and mitigation of large landslide risks in Europe, European Commission fifth framework programme IMIRILAND project, Balkema, Rotterdam, The Netherlands, 137–180.
Australian Geomechanics Society (AGS). (2000). “Landslide risk management concepts and guidelines.” Austral. Geomech. J., 35, 49–92.
Bergado, D. T., and Anderson, L. R. (1985). “Stochastic analysis of pore pressure uncertainty for the probabilistic assessment of the safety of earth slopes.” Soils Found., 25(2), 87–105.
Chowdhury, R., and Xu, D. W. (1994). “Slope system reliability with general slip surfaces.” Soils Found., 34(3), 99–105.
Dai, F. C., Lee, C. F., and Ngai, Y. Y. (2002). “Landslide risk assessment and management: An overview.” Eng. Geol. (Amsterdam), 64, 65–87.
El-Ramly, H., Morgenstern, N. R., and Cruden, D. M. (2002). “Probabilistic slope stability analysis for practice.” Can. Geotech. J., 39, 665–683.
Fell, R., Corominas, J., Bonnard, Ch., Cascini, L., Leroi, E., and Savage, W. Z. (2008). “Guidelines for landslide susceptibility, hazard and risk zoning for land use planning.” Eng. Geol., 102, 99–111.
Finlay, P. J., Mostyn, G. R., and Fell, R. (1999). “Landslides: Prediction of travel distance and guidelines for vulnerability of persons.” Proc., 8th Australia New Zealand Conf. on Geomechanics, Vol. 1, Australian Geomechanics Society, Barton, ACT, Australia, 105–113.
Geo and Soft International. (1999). ROTOMAP for Windows, Turin, Italy.
Geo and Soft International. (2003). ISOMAP & ROTOMAP for Windows (3D surface modeling & rockfall analysis), Turin, Italy.
Hassan, A. M., and Wolff, T. F. (1999). “Search algorithm for minimum reliability index of earth slopes.” J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng., 125(4), 301–308.
Ho, K. K. S., and Ko, F. W. Y. (2009). “Application of quantified risk analysis in landslide risk management practice: Hong Kong experience.” Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards, 3(3), 134–146.
Hungr, O. (1995). “A model for the runout analysis of rapid flow slides, debris flows, and avalanches.” Can. Geotech. J., 32, 610–623.
Huseby, A. B., and Terramar, A. S. (2008). “Riscue version 2.5.0.” ⟨http://www.riscue.com⟩ (Oct. 10, 2008).
ITASCA. (2002). FLAC3D, fast Lagrangian analysis of continua in 3 dimensions, version 3.0 manual, Minneapolis.
ITASCA. (2005). PFC3D, particle flow code in 3 dimensions, version 3.1 manual, Minneapolis.
Ko, F. W. Y., and Kwan, J. S. H. (2006). “Application of debris mobility modelling in landslide risk assessment in Hong Kong.” Proc., Int. Conf. on Slopes, P. Tung ed., Hong Kong, 139–157.
Matsuo, M., and Kuroda, K. (1974). “Probabilistic approach to design of embankments.” Soils Found., 14(2), 1–17.
Nadim, F., Einstein, H., and Roberds, W. (2005). “Probabilistic stability analysis for individual slopes in soil and rock.” Proc., Int. Conf. on Landslide Risk Management, Balkema, Leiden, 63–98.
Nadim, F., and Kvalstad T. J. (2007). “Risk assessment and management for offshore geohazards.” Proc., 1st Int. Symp. on Geotechnical Safety & Risk, Vol. 1, Tongji Univ., Shanghai, 159–173.
Nasir, D., McCabe, B., and Hartono, L. (2003). “Evaluating risk in construction-schedule model (ERIC-S): Construction schedule risk model.” J. Constr. Eng. Manage., 129, 518–527.
PLAXIS. (2007). Delft University of Technology & PLAXIS b.v.: PLAXIS 2D. version 8.6 manual, Delft, Netherlands.
Ronald, E. W., and Raymond, H. M. (1993). Probability and statistics for engineers and scientists, 5th Ed., Macmillan, New York.
Soeters, R., and van Westen, C. J. (1996). “Slope instability, recognition, analysis, and zonation.” Landslides: Investigation and mitigation, A. K. Turner and R. L. Schuster, eds., Transportation Research Board, National Research Council, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 129–177.
Tobutt, D. C. (1982). “Monte Carlo simulation methods for slope stability.” Comput. Geosci., 8(2), 199–208.
van Westen, C. J., Rengers, N., Terlien, M. T. J., and Soeters, R. (1997). “Prediction of the occurrence of slope instability phenomena through GIS-based hazard zonation.” Geol. Rundsch., 86, 404–414.
Wong, H. N., Ho, K. K. S., and Chan, Y. C. (1997). “Assessment of consequence of landslides.” Proc., Int. Workshop on Landslide Risk Assessment, Balkema, Rotterdam, The Netherlands, 111–149.
Yang, Y. B., and Cao, X. L. (2003). “Economic analysis of project schedule controlling objective.” Journal of Chongqing Jianzhu University, 25(2), 102–105.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering
Volume 136 • Issue 12 • December 2010
Pages: 1644 - 1654
Copyright
© 2010 ASCE.
History
Received: Mar 19, 2009
Accepted: Apr 26, 2010
Published online: May 6, 2010
Published in print: Dec 2010
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.