Bayesian Probabilistic Approach for the Correlations of Compression Index for Marine Clays
This article has been corrected.
VIEW CORRECTIONPublication: Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering
Volume 135, Issue 12
Abstract
The compression index is an important soil property that is essential to many geotechnical designs. Over the decades, a number of empirical correlations have been proposed to relate the compressibility to other soil index properties, such as the liquid limit, plasticity index, in situ water content, void ratio, specific gravity, etc. The reliability and thus predictability of these correlations are always being questioned. Moreover, selection between simple and complicated models is a difficult task and often depends on subjective judgments. A more complicated model obviously provides “better fit” to the data but not necessarily offers an acceptable degree of robustness to measurement noise and modeling error. In the present study, the Bayesian probabilistic approach for model class selection is used to revisit the empirical multivariate linear regression formula of the compression index. The criterion in the formula structure selection is based on the plausibility of a class of formulas conditional on the measurement, instead of considering the likelihood only. The plausibility balances between the data fitting capability and sensitivity to measurement and modeling error, which is quantified by the Ockham factor. The Bayesian method is applied to analyze a data set of 795 records, including the compression index and other well-known geotechnical index properties of marine clay samples collected from various sites in South Korea. It turns out that the correlation formula linking the compression index to the initial void ratio and liquid limit possesses the highest plausibility among a total of 18 candidate classes of formulas. The physical significance of this most plausible correlation is addressed. It turns out to be consistent with previous studies and the Bayesian method provides the confirmation from another angle.
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Acknowledgments
The writers would like to acknowledge the Fundo para o Desenvolvimento das Ciencias e da Tecnologia (FDCT), Macau SAR government (Grant No. UNSPECIFIED013/2006/A1), and the Ministry of Land, Transport, and Marine Affairs of South Korea (Grant No. UNSPECIFIEDPM-54100) for the financial assistances.
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Published In
Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering
Volume 135 • Issue 12 • December 2009
Pages: 1932 - 1940
Copyright
© 2009 ASCE.
History
Received: Dec 9, 2008
Accepted: May 11, 2009
Published online: Nov 13, 2009
Published in print: Dec 2009
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