Technical Papers
Apr 28, 2021

Element Failure Probability of Soil Slope under Consideration of Random Groundwater Level

Publication: International Journal of Geomechanics
Volume 21, Issue 7

Abstract

The instability of soil slopes is directly related to the shear parameters of the soil material and groundwater, which usually causes some uncertainty. In this study, a novel method, the element failure probability method (EFP), will be proposed to analyze the failure of soil slopes. Based on upper bound theory, finite element discretization, and stochastic programming theory, an upper bound stochastic programming model will be established by simultaneously considering the randomness of the shear parameters and groundwater level to analyze the reliability of slopes. The model will be solved using the Monte Carlo method based on the random shear parameters and groundwater levels. Finally, a formula will be derived for the EFP based on the safety factors and velocity fields of the upper bound method. The probability of a slope failure can be calculated using the safety factor, and the distribution of failure regions in space can be determined using the location information of the element. The proposed method will be validated using a classic example. This study could have theoretical value for further research that attempts to advance the application of plastic limit analysis to analyze slope reliability.

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Acknowledgments

This work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 51564026), the Research Foundation of Kunming University of Science and Technology (Grant No. KKSY201904006) and the Key Laboratory of Rock Mechanics and Geohazards of Zhejiang Province (Grant No. ZJRM-2018-Z-02). The comments made by the reviewers have considerably improved the quality of the paper.

Notation

The following symbols are used in this paper:
Ab
coordinate transformation matrix of the finite element b on the boundary;
A1e
matrix of plastic flow constraint conditions of the finite element e;
A2e
matrix of plastic flow constraint conditions of the finite element e;
A1d
matrix of plastic flow constraint conditions of the velocity discontinuity d;
A2d
matrix of plastic flow constraint conditions of the velocity discontinuity d;
cr
random variables of the cohesion of the soil materials;
cr
random quantity of cohesion after the intensity reduction;
cr(tm)
tmth random number on the materials of the soil cohesion;
cr(tm)
tmth random number of the soil cohesion after strength reduction;
Hwr
random variable of the groundwater level of the soil slope;
Hwr(tw)
twth random number of the groundwater level of the soil slope;
Hlb
lower bound of the groundwater level of the soil slope;
Hub
upper bound of the groundwater level of the soil slope;
Iz(tw, tm)
failure function of the soil slope corresponding to the random number of the tm the random shear parameter under the action of the twth groundwater level;
Ie(tw, tm)
failure function of the finite element e corresponding to the random number of the shear tmth parameter under the action of the twth underground level;
nb
quantity of the finite elements on the boundary of the soil slope;
nd
quantity of the velocity discontinuities in the soil slope;
ne
quantity of finite elements in the soil slope;
nm
quantity of material for the soil cohesion and the friction angle of the Monte Carlo random number;
nw
quantity of the Monte Carlo random numbers of the groundwater level of the soil slope;
per
pore water pressure vector of finite element e;
peir(tw)
pore water pressure at nodes i (i = 1, 2, 3) in finite element e under the action of twth groundwater level;
peir
random variable of the pore water pressure at nodes i in finite element e;
PFz
IFP of the slope under the action of all possible groundwater levels;
PFe
failure probability of the finite element e in the slope under the action of all possible groundwater levels;
Pfe(tw)
failure probability of the finite element e in the soil slope under the action of the twth groundwater level;
Pfz(tw)
IFP of the slope under the action of the twth groundwater level;
Tb
transformation matrix of the finite element b on the boundary;
Td
transformation matrix of the velocity discontinuity d;
ub
velocity vector of the boundary finite element b;
ud
velocity vector of the velocity discontinuity d;
ue
velocity vector of finite element e;
uce(tw,tm)
resultant velocity at the centroid of the finite element e corresponding to the random number of the shear tmth parameter under the action of the twth underground water level;
uxid
velocity of the ith [i = (1, …, 4)] node on the velocity discontinuity plane d along the x-direction;
uyid
velocity of the ith [i = (1, …, 4)] node on the velocity discontinuity plane d along the y-direction;
uxie
velocity of nodes i (i = 1, …, 3) in the finite element e along the x-direction;
uxie(tw,tm)
velocity of node i [i = (1, 2, 3)] in the finite element e along the x-direction calculated using the random number cr(tm), φr(tm) of the tmth shear parameter under the action of the twth groundwater level;
uyie
velocity of nodes i (i = 1, …, 3) in the finite element e along the y-direction;
uyie(tw,tm)
velocity of node i [i = (1, 2, 3)] in the finite element e along the y-direction calculated by using the random number cr(tm), φr(tm) of the tmth shear parameter under the action of the twth groundwater level;
WEx1
external work power done by the dead weight on the velocity of the finite element nodes;
WEx2
external power done by concentrated force and distributed load at the velocity of the finite element nodes;
WEx3p
external work power of the pore water pressure in the finite element continuous body;
WEx4p
external work power done by pore water pressure on the finite element velocity discontinuities;
WIn1
internal power of finite elements;
WIn2
internal power of the velocity discontinuities;
Z
limit state function of the soil slope reliability;
γa
real volume weight of the soil material;
γc(cr, φr, Hr)
random variable of the ultimate value of volume weight that relates to cr, φr, and Hr when the soil reaches the limit state;
γc(cr(tm),φr(tm),Hwr(tw))
ultimate volume weight of the soil slope in the limit state when it reaches the instability related to the tmth random shear parameter under the action of twth groundwater level;
γe
volume weight of finite element e;
θd
inclination angle of the velocity discontinuity d;
θb
dip angle of the boundary;
λd
vector of nonnegative plastic multiplier of the velocity discontinuity d;
λe
vector of nonnegative plastic multiplier of finite element e;
λmr
random variable of the safety factor that relates to cr, φr, and Hr;
λm(tw, tm)
safety factor of the random number corresponding to the tmth random shear parameter under the action of the twth groundwater level;
λγr
random variable of the overload factor of volume weight that relates to cr, φr, and Hr;
λγ(tw, tm)
volume weight overload factor corresponding to the random number of the random shear parameter tm under the action of the twth groundwater level;
μc
mean value of the material cohesion of the soil;
μw
mean groundwater level of the soil slope;
μφ
mean value of the friction angle of the soil material;
σc
standard deviation of the soil cohesion;
σw
standard deviation of the groundwater level of the soil slope;
σφ
standard deviation of the friction angle of the soil materials;
φr
random variables of the internal friction angle of the soil materials;
φdr
random quantity of the internal friction angle of the velocity discontinuity plane d;
φer
random quantity of friction angle of the finite element e of soil slope;
φr(tm)
tmth random number of the friction angle of the soil material;
φr
random quantity of the internal friction angle after the intensity reduction; and
φr(tm)
tmth random number of the internal friction angle of soil after strength reduction.

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Go to International Journal of Geomechanics
International Journal of Geomechanics
Volume 21Issue 7July 2021

History

Received: Aug 31, 2020
Accepted: Feb 9, 2021
Published online: Apr 28, 2021
Published in print: Jul 1, 2021
Discussion open until: Sep 28, 2021

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Professor, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Mechanics, Kunming Univ. of Science and Technology, Kunming, Yunnan 650500, China. Email: [email protected]
Ph.D. Candidate, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Mechanics, Kunming Univ. of Science and Technology, Kunming, Yunnan 650500, China. Email: [email protected]
Professor, Faculty of Engineering and Informatics, Univ. of Bradford, Bradford BD7 1DP, UK. Email: [email protected]
Xiaoyan Zhang, Ph.D. [email protected]
Faculty of Electric Power Engineering, Kunming Univ. of Science and Technology, Kunming, Yunnan 650500, China (corresponding author). Email: [email protected]
Professor, Key Laboratory of Rock Mechanics and Geohazards of Zhejiang Province, Shaoxing, Zhejiang 312000, China. Email: [email protected]

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