Mathematical Model of Cryospheric Response to Climate Changes
Publication: Journal of Cold Regions Engineering
Volume 27, Issue 2
Abstract
This paper focuses on the development of simplified mathematical models of the cryosphere which may be useful in further understanding possible global climate change impacts and in further assessing future impacts captured by global circulation models (GCMs). The mathematical models developed by leveraging the dominating effects of freezing and thawing within the cryosphere to simplify the relevant heat transport equations are tractable to direct solution or numerical modeling. In this paper, the heat forcing function is assumed to be a linear transformation of temperature (assumed to be represented by proxy realizations). The output from the governing mathematical model is total ice volume of the cryosphere. The basic mathematical model provides information as a systems modeling approach that includes sufficient detail to explain ice volume given the estimation of the heat forcing function. A comparison between modeling results in the estimation of ice volume versus ice volume estimates developed from use of proxy data are shown in the demonstration problems presented.
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Acknowledgments
Acknowledgements are paid to the United States Military Academy, West Point, New York, Department of Mathematical Sciences and the Naval Post Graduate School, Monterey, California, Department of Defense Analysis for their support to the authors during this research. Also acknowledged are the several individuals who have participated in particular tasks in developing this paper including, but by no means limited to, Rene Perez, Laura Hromadka, Bethany Espinosa, and Michael Barton.
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Published In
Journal of Cold Regions Engineering
Volume 27 • Issue 2 • June 2013
Pages: 67 - 93
Copyright
© 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Jul 7, 2011
Accepted: Oct 4, 2012
Published online: Oct 5, 2012
Published in print: Jun 1, 2013
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