Technical Papers
Aug 10, 2015

A Novel Machine Learning Model for Estimation of Sale Prices of Real Estate Units

Publication: Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
Volume 142, Issue 2

Abstract

Predicting the price of housing is of paramount importance for near-term economic forecasting of any nation. This paper presents a novel and comprehensive model for estimating the price of new housing in any given city at the design phase or beginning of the construction through ingenious integration of a deep belief restricted Boltzmann machine and a unique nonmating genetic algorithm. The model can be used by construction companies to gauge the sale market before they start a new construction and consider to build or not to build. An effective data structure is presented that takes into account a large number of economic variables/indices. The model incorporates time-dependent and seasonal variations of the variables. Clever stratagems have been developed to overcome the dimensionality curse and make the solution of the problem amenable on standard workstations. A case study is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness and accuracy of the model.

Get full access to this article

View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.

References

Adeli, H., ed. (1994). Advances in design optimization, Chapman and Hall, London.
Adeli, H. (2001). “Neural networks in civil engineering: 1989–2000.” Comput.-Aided Civ. Infrastruct. Eng., 16(2), 126–142.
Adeli, H., and Hung, S. L. (1995). Machine learning—Neural networks, genetic algorithms, and fuzzy systems, Wiley, New York.
Adeli, H., and Karim, A. (1997). “Scheduling/cost optimization and neural dynamics model for construction.” J. Constr. Manage. Eng., 450–458.
Adeli, H., and Park, H. S. (1998). Neurocomputing for design automation, CRC Press, Boca Raton, FL.
Adeli, H., and Sarma, K. (2006). Cost optimization of structures—Fuzzy logic, genetic algorithms, and parallel computing, Wiley, Chichester, U.K.
Adeli, H., and Soegiarso, R. (1999). High-performance computing in structural engineering, CRC Press, Boca Raton, FL.
Adeli, H., and Wu, M. (1998). “Regularization neural network for construction cost estimation.” J. Constr. Eng. Manage., 18–24.
Borowiecki, K. J. (2009). “The determinants of house prices and construction: An empirical investigation of the Swiss housing economy.” Int. Real Estate Rev., 12(3), 193–220.
Boutalis, Y., Christodoulou, M., and Theodoridis, D. (2013). “Indirect adaptive control of nonlinear systems based on bilinear neuro-fuzzy approximation.” Int. J. Neural Syst., 23(5), 1350022.
Butcher, J. B., Day, C. R., Austin, J. C., Haycock, P. W., Verstraeten, D., and Schrauwen, B. (2014). “Defect detection in reinforced concrete using random neural architectures.” Comput.-Aided Civ. Infrastruct. Eng., 29(3), 191–207.
Cho, Y. S., Lee, S. I., and Bae, J. S. (2014). “Reinforcement placement in a concrete slab object using structural building information modeling.” Comput.-Aided Civ. Infrastruct. Eng., 29(1), 47–59.
Chow, J. Y. J. (2014). “Activity-based travel scenario analysis with routing problem reoptimization.” Comput.-Aided Civ. Infrastruct. Eng., 29(2), 91–106.
Dai, H., and Wang, W. (2014). “An adaptive wavelet frame neural network method for efficient reliability analysis.” Comput.-Aided Civ. Infrastruct. Eng., 29(10), 801–814.
Das, S., Gupta, R., and Kabundi, A. (2009). “Could we have predicted the recent downturn in the South African housing market?” J. Housing Econ., 18(4), 325–335.
Égert, B., and Mihaljek, D. (2007). “Determinants of house prices in central and eastern Europe.” Comp. Econ. Stud., 49(3), 367–388.
Favara, G., and Song, Z. (2014). “House price dynamics with dispersed information.” J. Econ. Theor., 149, 350–382.
Forcael, E., González, V., Orozco, F., Vargas, S., Moscoso, P., and Pantoja, A. (2014). “Ant colony optimization model for tsunamis evacuation routes.” Comput.-Aided Civ. Infrastruct. Eng., 29(10), 723–737.
Friedrich, J., Urbancziky, R., and Senn, W. (2014). “Code-specific learning rules improve action selection by populations of spiking neurons.” Int. J. Neural Syst., 24(5), 1450002.
Fuggini, C., Chatzi, E., Zangani, D., and Messervey, T. B. (2013). “Combining genetic algorithm with a meso-scale approach for system identification of a smart polymeric textile.” Comput.-Aided Civ. Infrastruct. Eng., 28(3), 227–245.
Hejazi, F., Toloue, I., Noorzaei, J., and Jaafar, M. S. (2013). “Optimization of earthquake energy dissipation system by genetic algorithm.” Comput.-Aided Civ. Infrastruct. Eng., 28(10), 796–810.
Hinton, G. E. (2007). “Learning multiple layers of representation.” Trends Cognit. Sci., 11(10), 428–434.
Hinton, G. E., Osindero, S., and Teh, Y. W. (2006). “A fast learning algorithm for deep belief nets.” Neural Comput., 18(7), 1527–1554.
Hinton, G. E., and Salakhutdinov, R. R. (2006). “Reducing the dimensionality of data with neural networks.” Science, 313(5786), 504–507.
Hopfield, J. J. (1982). “Neural networks and physical systems with emergent collective computational abilities.” Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A., 79(8), 2554–2558.
Hsu, W. Y. (2013). “Single-trial motor imagery classification using asymmetry ratio, phase relation and wavelet-based fractal features, and their selected combination.” Int. J. Neural Syst., 23(2), 1350007.
Huang, Y., Beck, J. L., Wu, S., and Li, H. (2014). “Robust Bayesian compressive sensing for signals in structural health monitoring.” Comput.-Aided Civ. Infrastruct. Eng., 29(3), 160–179.
Hung, S. L., and Adeli, H. (1993). “Parallel backpropagation learning algorithms on Cray Y-MP8/864 supercomputer.” Neurocomputing, 5(6), 287–302.
Hung, S. L., and Adeli, H. (1994). “Object-oriented back propagation and its application to structural design.” Neurocomputing, 6(1), 45–55.
Jia, L., Wang, Y., and Fan, L. (2014). “Multiobjective bilevel optimization for production-distribution planning problems using hybrid genetic algorithm.” Integr. Comput. Aided Eng., 21(1), 77–90.
Khalafallah, A. (2008). “Neural network based model for predicting housing market performance.” Tsinghua Sci. Technol. J., 13(S1), 325–328.
Khosrowshahi, F., Ghdous, P., and Sarshar, M. (2014). “Visualization of the modeled degradation of building flooring systems in building maintenance.” Comput.-Aided Civ. Infrastruct. Eng., 29(1), 18–30.
Kodogiannis, V. S., Amina, M., and Petrounias, I. (2013). “A clustering-based fuzzy-wavelet neural network model for short-term load forecasting.” Int. J. Neural Syst., 23(5), 1350024.
Kwon, M., Kavuri, S., and Lee, M. (2014). “Action-perception cycle learning for incremental emotion recognition in a movie clip using 3D fuzzy GIST based on visual and EEG signals.” Integr. Comput.-Aided Eng., 21(3), 295–310.
Lin, D. Y., and Ku, Y. H. (2014). “Using genetic algorithms to optimize stopping patterns for passenger rail transportation.” Comput.-Aided Civ. Infrastruct. Eng., 29(4), 264–278.
Mathwords. (2012). “Combination formula.” 〈http://www.mathwords.com/c/combination_formula.htm〉 (Jun. 22, 2015).
MATLAB version 8.2.0.701 [Computer software]. Natick, MA, MathWorks.
Pedrino, E. C., et al. (2013). “A genetic programming based system for the automatic construction of image filters.” Integr. Comput.-Aided Eng., 20(3), 275–287.
Rapach, D. E., and Strauss, J. K. (2006). “The long-run relationship between consumption and housing wealth in the Eighth District states.” Econ. Dev., 2(2), 140–147.
Rigatos, G. G. (2013). “Adaptive fuzzy control for differentially flat MIMO nonlinear dynamical systems.” Integr. Comput.-Aided Eng., 20(2), 111–126.
Rosselló, J. L., Canals, V., Oliver, A., and Morro, A. (2014). “Studying the role of synchronized and chaotic spiking neural ensembles in neural information processing.” Int. J. Neural Syst., 24(5), 11.
Selim, H. (2009). “Determinants of house prices in Turkey: Hedonic regression versus artificial neural network.” Expert Syst. Appl., 36(2), 2843–2852.
Senouci, A. B., and Adeli, H. (2001). “Resource scheduling using neural dynamics model of Adeli and Park.” J. Constr. Eng. Manage., 28–34.
Shafahi, Y., and Bagherian, M. (2013). “A customized particle swarm method to solve highway alignment optimization problem.” Comput.-Aided Civ. Infrastruct. Eng., 28(1), 52–67.
Shapero, S., Zhu, M., Hasler, P., and Rozell, C. (2014). “Optimal sparse approximation with integrate and fire neurons.” Int. J. Neural Syst., 24(5), 1440001.
Siddique, N., and Adeli, H. (2013). Computational intelligence—Synergies of fuzzy logic, neural networks and evolutionary computing, Wiley, Chichester, U.K.
Smolensky, P. (1986). “Information processing in dynamical systems: Foundations of harmony theory.” Chapter 6, Parallel distributed processing, Vol. 1, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 194–281.
Spackova, O., and Straub, D. (2013). “Dynamic Bayesian networks for probabilistic modeling of tunnel excavation processes.” Comput.-Aided Civ. Infrastruct. Eng., 28(1), 1–21.
Story, B. A., and Fry, G. T. (2014). “A structural impairment detection system using competitive arrays of artificial neural networks.” Comput.-Aided Civ. Infrastruct. Eng., 29(3), 180–190.
Szeto, W. Y., Wang, Y., and Wong, S. C. (2014). “The chemical reaction optimization approach to solving the environmentally sustainable network design problem.” Comput.-Aided Civ. Infrastruct. Eng., 29(2), 140–158.
United Nations Statistics Division. (2014). “City population by sex, city and city type.” 〈http://data.un.org/Data.aspx?d=POP&f=tableCode:240〉 (Mar. 11, 2014).
U.S. Department of Labor. (2015). “Producer price indexes.” Bureau of Labor Statistics, 〈http://www.bls.gov/ppi/〉 (Jun. 22, 2015).
Vlahogianni, E. I., and Karlaftis, M. G. (2013). “Fuzzy-entropy neural network freeway incident duration modeling with single and competing uncertainties.” Comput.-Aided Civ. Infrastruct. Eng., 28(6), 420–433.
Wu, J. W., Tseng, J. C. R., and Tsai, W. N. (2014). “A hybrid linear text segmentation algorithm using hierarchical agglomerative clustering and discrete particle swarm optimization.” Integr. Comput.-Aided Eng., 21(1), 35–46.
Zeng, Z., Xu, J., Wu, S., and Shen, M. (2014). “Antithetic method-based particle swarm optimization for a queuing network problem with fuzzy data in concrete transportation systems.” Comput.-Aided Civ. Infrastruct. Eng., 29(10), 771–800.
Zhang, G., Rong, H., Neri, F., and Perez-Jimenez, M. J. (2014a). “An optimization spiking neural P system for approximately solving combinatorial optimization problems.” Int. J. Neural Syst., 24(5), 1440006.
Zhang, J. P., Yu, F. Q., Li, D., and Hu, Z. Z. (2014b). “Development and implementation of an industry foundation classes-based graphic information model for virtual construction.” Comput.-Aided Civ. Infrastruct. Eng., 29(1), 60–74.
Zhang, Y., and Ge, H. (2013). “Freeway travel time prediction using Takagi-Sugeno-Kang fuzzy neural network.” Comput.-Aided Civ. Infrastruct. Eng., 28(8), 594–603.
Zhu, W., Hu, H., and Huang, Z. (2014). “Calibrating rail transit assignment models with genetic algorithm and automated fare collection data.” Comput.-Aided Civ. Infrastruct. Eng., 29(7), 518–530.

Information & Authors

Information

Published In

Go to Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
Volume 142Issue 2February 2016

History

Received: Nov 24, 2014
Accepted: Jun 18, 2015
Published online: Aug 10, 2015
Discussion open until: Jan 10, 2016
Published in print: Feb 1, 2016

Permissions

Request permissions for this article.

Authors

Affiliations

Mohammad Hossein Rafiei, S.M.ASCE [email protected]
Ph.D. Student, Dept. of Civil, Environmental and Geodetic Engineering, Ohio State Univ., 470 Hitchcock Hall, 2070 Neil Ave., Columbus, OH 43220. E-mail: [email protected]
Hojjat Adeli, Dist.M.ASCE [email protected]
Professor, Dept. of Civil, Environmental and Geodetic Engineering, Ohio State Univ., 470 Hitchcock Hall, 2070 Neil Ave., Columbus, OH 43220 (corresponding author). E-mail: [email protected]

Metrics & Citations

Metrics

Citations

Download citation

If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.

Cited by

View Options

Get Access

Access content

Please select your options to get access

Log in/Register Log in via your institution (Shibboleth)
ASCE Members: Please log in to see member pricing

Purchase

Save for later Information on ASCE Library Cards
ASCE Library Cards let you download journal articles, proceedings papers, and available book chapters across the entire ASCE Library platform. ASCE Library Cards remain active for 24 months or until all downloads are used. Note: This content will be debited as one download at time of checkout.

Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.
ASCE Library Card (5 downloads)
$105.00
Add to cart
ASCE Library Card (20 downloads)
$280.00
Add to cart
Buy Single Article
$35.00
Add to cart

Get Access

Access content

Please select your options to get access

Log in/Register Log in via your institution (Shibboleth)
ASCE Members: Please log in to see member pricing

Purchase

Save for later Information on ASCE Library Cards
ASCE Library Cards let you download journal articles, proceedings papers, and available book chapters across the entire ASCE Library platform. ASCE Library Cards remain active for 24 months or until all downloads are used. Note: This content will be debited as one download at time of checkout.

Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.
ASCE Library Card (5 downloads)
$105.00
Add to cart
ASCE Library Card (20 downloads)
$280.00
Add to cart
Buy Single Article
$35.00
Add to cart

Media

Figures

Other

Tables

Share

Share

Copy the content Link

Share with email

Email a colleague

Share