Cost and Schedule Risk Analysis of Bridge Construction in Pakistan: Establishing Risk Guidelines
Publication: Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
Volume 140, Issue 7
Abstract
The construction process is inherently prone to risks. Risk management is an essential and integral part of project management on virtually all construction projects. Risk analysis is one of the core components of risk management that enables professionals to quantify and analyze risks that may pose potential threats to project performance in terms of cost, quality, safety, and time. This research was conducted to identify and analyze risks associated with bridge construction in Pakistan. A questionnaire was conducted to collect data. Risks affecting bridge construction project performance were identified through interviews conducted with engineers and managers involved with various bridge projects. Cost and schedule impacts of project risks were supplemented by conducting a case study using the Monte Carlo simulation. The key findings indicate that financial risks were a major factor that affected cost and schedule objectives. The highest ranked factor identified was unavailability of funds with a relative importance index greater than 85. The results of the Monte Carlo simulation were compared to the actual completion times and costs of activities in the case study. In all cases of this comparison, the actual completion date and costs fell within the predicted distribution of the Monte Carlo simulation, indicating that risk analysis can help project managers to manage cost and schedule risks. Additionally, this study provided risk analysis guidelines, which were unclear. The results of this paper can help engineers, cost control managers, and project managers evaluate particular risks on their projects and avoid delays and cost overruns.
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Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
Volume 140 • Issue 7 • July 2014
Copyright
© 2014 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Apr 10, 2012
Accepted: Feb 18, 2014
Published online: Mar 26, 2014
Published in print: Jul 1, 2014
Discussion open until: Aug 26, 2014
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