Technical Papers
Sep 5, 2011

Stock-Flow Model for Forecasting Labor Supply

Publication: Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
Volume 138, Issue 6

Abstract

Forecasting the supply of labor in the construction industry is pivotal to long-term economic growth. A labor supply model using a stock-flow approach was developed in this research for use in the construction industry. The model was tested using Hong Kong census statistics and data derived from interviews with 3,000 randomly selected construction workers. The findings were determined using a stock-flow model, which enabled the determination of future aging distribution trends and workforce supply for specific trade types. The developed stock-flow model can be effectively used in countries in which registration schemes for construction workers are in use.

Get full access to this article

View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.

References

Agapiou, A., Price, A. D. F., and Maccaffer, R. (1995). “Forecasting the supply of construction skills in the UK.” Constr. Manage. Econ., 13(4), 353–364.
Bassett, G. A. (1973). “Elements of manpower forecasting and scheduling.” Hum. Resour. Manage.HRMRE7, 3, 35–40.
Beenstock, M., and Warburton, P. (1982). “An aggregative model of the UK labour market.” Oxford Econ. Pap. New Series, 34(2), 253–275.
Bell, L. C., and Brandenburg, S. G. (2003). “Forecasting construction staffing for transportation agencies.” J. Manage. Eng.JMENEA, 19(3), 116–120.
Bockman, S., and Sirotnik, B. (2008). “The aging workforce: An expanded definition.” Bus. Renaissance Q., 3(3), 129–135.
Borjas, G. J. (2004). “Increasing the supply of labor through immigration: Measuring the impact on native-born workers.” CIS Backgrounder, Centre for Immigration Studies, Washington, DC.
Briscoe, G., and Wilson, R. (1991). “Explanations of the demand for labour in the United Kingdom engineering sector.” Appl. Econ.APPEBP, 23(5), 913–926.
Briscoe, G., and Wilson, R. (1993). Employment forecasting in the construction industry, Avebury, Surrey, UK.
Edwards, J. S. (1983). “A survey of manpower planning models and their application.” J. Oper. Res. Soc., 34(11), 1031–1040.
Fan, R. Y. C., Ng, S. T., and Wong, J. M. W. (2010). “Reliability of the Box-Jenkins model for forecasting construction demand covering times of economic austerity.” Constr. Manage. Econ., 28(3), 241–254.
Goh, B. H., and Teo, H. P. (2000). “Forecasting construction industry demand, price and productivity in Singapore: The Box-Jenkins approach.” Constr. Manage. Econ., 18(5), 607–618.
Green, A. E. (1990). “Craft and technician skill shortages in engineering.” Int. J. Manpower, 11(2), 18–22.
Grossberg, A. J. (1989). “Labor supply under real wage uncertainty: A new look at the intertemporal substitution hypothesis.” South. Econ. J.SECJAR, 55(4), 974–986.
Harvey, E. B., and Murthy, K. S. R. (1988). “Forecasting manpower demand and supply: A model for the accounting professionals in Canada.” Int. J. Forecast.IJFOEK, 4(4), 551–562.
Hillebrandt, P. M., and Meikle, J. L. (1985). “Resource planning for construction.” Constr. Manage. Econ., 3(3), 249–263.
Hong Kong Construction Industry Council (HKCIC). “Annual report 2009.” 〈http://www.hkcic.org〉 (July 10, 2010).
Hong Kong Construction Workers Registration Authority (HKCWRA). “Total number of valid registered construction workers.” 〈http://www.cwra.org.hk〉 (July 10, 2010).
Human Resources Development Canada. (2000). “Challenges of an aging workforce.” Dept. of Human Resources and Skills Development Canada, 〈http://www.hrsdc.gc.ca〉 (July 20, 2010).
Lende, T. (2005). “Older workers: Opportunity or challenge?Canadian Manager, 30(1), 20–30.
Lu, Y., and AbouRizk, S. M. (2009). “Automated Box—Jenkins forecasting modelling.” Autom. Constr.AUCOES, 18(5), 547–558.
Mackenzie, S., Kilpatrick, A. R., and Akintoye, A. (2000). “UK construction skills shortage response strategies and an analysis of industry perceptions.” Constr. Manage. Econ., 18(7), 853–862.
Martin, L. (1990). “Nursing skills: Is there a shortage?Int. J. Manpower, 11(2), 37–43.
McClean, S. (1991). “Manpower planning models and their estimation.” Eur. J. Oper. Res.EJORDT, 51(2), 179–187.
Ofori, G. (1988). “Construction industry and economic growth in Singapore.” Constr. Manage. Econ., 6(1), 57–70.
Purcell, P. (2000). “Older workers: Employment and retirement trends.” CRS Rep. for Congress, Congressional Research Service, Washington, DC.
Purkiss, C. (1981). “Corporate manpower planning: A review of models.” Eur. J. Oper. Res.EJORDT, 8(4), 315–323.
Rizza, R. A. et al. (2003). “A model to determine workforce needs for endocrinologists in the United States until 2020.” Diabetes CareDICAD2, 26(5), 1545–1552.
Rosenfeld, Y., and Warszawski, A. (1993). “Forecasting methodology of national demand for construction labour.” Constr. Manage. Econ., 11(1), 18–29.
Ruby, D. A. (1999). “Labour supply decisions and labour market equilibrim.” 〈http://digitaleconomist.org〉 (August 3, 2010).
Schmidt, S. L., Schomann, K., and Terssaring, M. (2003). “Early identification of skill need in Europe.” In Cedefop reference series, Luxembourg.
Silverman, J., Steuer, R. E., and Whisman, A. W. (1988). “A multi-period, multiple criteria optimization system for manpower planning.” Eur. J. Oper. Res.EJORDT, 34(2), 160–170.
Streb, C., Voelpel, S., and Leibold, M. (2009). “Aging workforce management in the automobile industry: Defining the concept and its constituting elements.” Ger. J. Res. Hum. Res. Manage., 23(1), 8–27.
The Vocational Training Council (VTC). (2009). Manpower survey report of the building and civil engineering industry, Hong Kong.
Wilkinson, L. (1999). “Statistical methods in psychology journals: Guidelines and explanations.” Am. Psychol.AMPSAB, 54(8), 594–604.
Wong, M. W., Chan, P. C., and Chiang, Y. H. (2005). “Time series forecasts of the construction labour market in Hong Kong: The Box-Jenkins approach.” Constr. Manage. Econ.CMECF3, 23(9), 979–991.

Information & Authors

Information

Published In

Go to Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
Volume 138Issue 6June 2012
Pages: 707 - 715

History

Received: Aug 14, 2010
Accepted: Sep 2, 2011
Published online: Sep 5, 2011
Published in print: Jun 1, 2012

Permissions

Request permissions for this article.

Authors

Affiliations

Chun-pong Sing [email protected]
Senior Lecturer, Dept. of Construction Management, Curtin Univ., Perth WA 6845, Australia. E-mail: [email protected]
P. E. D. Love [email protected]
John Curtin Distinguished Professor, Dept. of Construction Management, Curtin Univ., Perth WA 6845 Australia (corresponding author). E-mail: [email protected]
Professor and Associate Dean, Dept. of Civil and Architectural Engineering, City Univ. of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China. E-mail: [email protected]

Metrics & Citations

Metrics

Citations

Download citation

If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.

Cited by

View Options

Get Access

Access content

Please select your options to get access

Log in/Register Log in via your institution (Shibboleth)
ASCE Members: Please log in to see member pricing

Purchase

Save for later Information on ASCE Library Cards
ASCE Library Cards let you download journal articles, proceedings papers, and available book chapters across the entire ASCE Library platform. ASCE Library Cards remain active for 24 months or until all downloads are used. Note: This content will be debited as one download at time of checkout.

Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.
ASCE Library Card (5 downloads)
$105.00
Add to cart
ASCE Library Card (20 downloads)
$280.00
Add to cart
Buy Single Article
$35.00
Add to cart

Get Access

Access content

Please select your options to get access

Log in/Register Log in via your institution (Shibboleth)
ASCE Members: Please log in to see member pricing

Purchase

Save for later Information on ASCE Library Cards
ASCE Library Cards let you download journal articles, proceedings papers, and available book chapters across the entire ASCE Library platform. ASCE Library Cards remain active for 24 months or until all downloads are used. Note: This content will be debited as one download at time of checkout.

Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.
ASCE Library Card (5 downloads)
$105.00
Add to cart
ASCE Library Card (20 downloads)
$280.00
Add to cart
Buy Single Article
$35.00
Add to cart

Media

Figures

Other

Tables

Share

Share

Copy the content Link

Share with email

Email a colleague

Share