Short-Interval Dynamic Forecasting for Actual S-Curve in the Construction Phase
Publication: Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
Volume 137, Issue 11
Abstract
Traditional approaches for cost forecasting tend to utilize a single model for the entire construction period. However, a construction project, consisting of different stages, will incur different costs, which may not be accurately captured by a single model. Gates separated the -curve into three periods. Utilizing the same approach, the accuracy of cost forecasting can be improved by dividing the entire duration of a construction project into three periods. Therefore, this research aims at improving the traditional Grey prediction model by defining the suitable instead of using 0.5. This new technique applies the golden section and bisection method to optimize and build the short-interval cost-forecasting model. In each period of the construction phase, a customized optimization-forecasting model is used to estimate each short-interval cost. The proposed models should more closely predict the short-interval cost, which can be utilized to more accurately forecast the expenditure of the subsequent month within each period.
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Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
Volume 137 • Issue 11 • November 2011
Pages: 933 - 941
Copyright
© 2011 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Aug 12, 2010
Accepted: Jan 20, 2011
Published online: Jan 22, 2011
Published in print: Nov 1, 2011
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