Estimation of Time for Wenchuan Earthquake Reconstruction in China
Publication: Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
Volume 137, Issue 3
Abstract
Time is considered extremely urgent in China’s Wenchuan earthquake reconstruction. However, little research has been undertaken on estimating the time needed for reconstruction in China, especially for this specific reconstruction. Therefore, this paper aims to explore the time-cost relationship for the Wenchuan earthquake reconstruction. Both the Bromilow’s time-cost (BTC) model and the Elman network (EN) model have been developed to predict the time of Wenchuan earthquake reconstruction projects. Data have been obtained from 72 completed construction projects in the six cities that were seriously affected by the major Wenchuan earthquake. The result from the BTC model has been compared with that from the EN model to determine which one is more accurate. The results show that the EN model provides a more accurate time prediction for Wenchuan earthquake reconstruction than the BTC model does, though the BTC model is more suitable for application in practice. It is also shown that the proposed models are both useful for estimating the duration of reconstruction projects.
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Acknowledgments
This research was supported by the emergency research program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC Grant No. 70841011), the Key Program of NSFC (Grant No. NSFC70831005) and the National Science Foundation for Distinguished Young Scholars, P. R. China (Grant No. UNSPECIFIED70425005). The writers wish to thank the anonymous reviewers for their helpful and constructive comments and suggestions in improving the quality of this paper.
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Information
Published In
Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
Volume 137 • Issue 3 • March 2011
Pages: 179 - 187
Copyright
© 2011 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Apr 26, 2009
Accepted: Aug 25, 2010
Published online: Aug 31, 2010
Published in print: Mar 1, 2011
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