Bid-Winning Potential Optimization for Concession Schemes with Imprecise Investment Parameters
Publication: Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
Volume 135, Issue 8
Abstract
This paper portrays the development of a concession-investment optimization model for optimizing the winning potential of a concession-bid from the prospective promoters' viewpoints by taking into account imprecise investment parameters. A financial performance measure has been developed to quantify bid-winning potential. Fuzzy set theory is embedded into a genetic algorithm to optimize bid-winning prospects of concession schemes under uncertainty. The fuzzy vertex method accomplishes propagation of uncertainty in cash flows arising from imprecision in estimation of investment parameters. Genetic algorithm solves the optimization routine. The developed model yields global near-optimal solution of bid-winning potential with contributing values of concessionary items: concession length, base price, and equity level under uncertain investment environment. A numerical example demonstrates model capabilities. The model results would help promoters devise a profitable, yet competitive, financial proposal.
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Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
Volume 135 • Issue 8 • August 2009
Pages: 690 - 700
Copyright
© 2009 ASCE.
History
Received: Feb 21, 2008
Accepted: Jan 22, 2009
Published online: Apr 30, 2009
Published in print: Aug 2009
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