Physics-Based Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Long-Term Regional Bridge Scour Risk Using Hydrologic Modeling: Application to Lehigh River Watershed
Publication: Journal of Bridge Engineering
Volume 24, Issue 11
Abstract
Climate change poses a substantial threat to civil infrastructure systems. This paper proposes a systematic approach to evaluate the climate change impact on the risk of bridge scour. The proposed approach pivots on global climate models and their downscaled simulation data for future climate prediction. For scour hazard analysis, the climate simulation data are converted to flow discharge data using hydrologic modeling. Because future climates involve considerable uncertainties, different climate futures and global climate models are considered. In addition, long-term regional analyses are adopted to reduce these uncertainties. The proposed approach is applied to bridges over the Lehigh River in the Lehigh River watershed. With data from various public databases, the long-term regional risk of bridge scour is assessed using various global climate models under three climate change scenarios. The impact of climate change on bridge scour risk is quantified in monetary terms. The proposed approach and the obtained results provide an important basis for the planning of climate adaptation actions for river bridges.
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Acknowledgments
The authors are grateful for the financial support received from the US National Science Foundation Grant CMMI 1537926. The opinions and conclusions presented in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the sponsoring organizations.
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Journal of Bridge Engineering
Volume 24 • Issue 11 • November 2019
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© 2019 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Jun 20, 2018
Accepted: Apr 1, 2019
Published online: Aug 22, 2019
Published in print: Nov 1, 2019
Discussion open until: Jan 22, 2020
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