Probability of Collapse Expression for Bridges Subject to Barge Collision

Accounting for waterway vessel collision is required in the structural design of bridges spanning navigable waterways. During collision events, massive waterway vessel groups such as barge flotillas are capable of dynamically transmitting horizontal forces to impacted bridge components. Furthermore, collision-induced forces can be sufficient to collapse piers or roadway spans in the vicinity of the impact location. If collapse takes place, economic loss is suffered because of subsequent traffic rerouting and bridge replacement costs. Additionally, fatalities may occur if the roadway is occupied during or shortly after collapse. This paper focuses on the development of a probability of collapse expression for bridge piers subject to barge impact loading, where the relationship can be readily integrated into existing bridge design methodologies. The expression is developed by employing probabilistic descriptions for a multitude of random variables related to barge traffic characteristics and bridge structures in conjunction with nonlinear dynamic finite-element analyses of barge-bridge collisions. Highly efficient, advanced probabilistic simulation techniques are necessarily incorporated into the barge-bridge collision analysis framework to allow feasible estimation of structural reliability parameters. These parameters facilitate the formation of an expression that, in turn, bridge designers can use to estimate probabilities of structural collapse attributable to barge collision, without performing probabilistic analyses.