First-Order Reliability Method for Probabilistic Liquefaction Triggering Analysis Using CPT
Publication: Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering
Volume 132, Issue 3
Abstract
The potential for liquefaction triggering of a soil under a given seismic loading is measured herein by probability of liquefaction. The first order reliability method (FORM) is used to calculate reliability index, from which the probability of liquefaction is obtained. This approach requires the knowledge of parameter and model uncertainties; the latter is the focus of this paper. An empirical model for determining liquefaction resistance based on cone penetration test (CPT) is established through “neural network learning” of case histories. This resistance model along with a reference seismic loading model forms a performance function or limit state for liquefaction triggering analysis. Within the framework of the FORM, the uncertainty of this limit state model is characterized through an extensive series of sensitivity studies using Bayesian mapping functions that have been calibrated with a set of quality case histories. In addition, a deterministic model for assessing liquefaction potential in terms of factor of safety is presented, and the probability-safety factor mapping functions for estimating the probability of liquefaction for a given factor of safety in the absence of the knowledge of parameter uncertainty are also established. Examples are presented to illustrate the proposed methods.
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Acknowledgments
The study on which this paper is based was supported by the National Science Foundation through Grant No. NSFCMS-0218365. This financial support is greatly appreciated. The opinions expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect the view and policies of the National Science Foundation. Mr. David Kun Li and Dr. Peter Haiming Yuan and Dr. Susan H. Yang, the current and former students at Clemson University, participated in the previous studies that provided a foundation for the present study. Dr. Ronald Andrus, Dr. David Rosowski, and Dr. Wilson Tang are thanked for their valuable comments on the draft of this paper. Dr. Robb Moss is thanked for his quality database and valuable exchanges of ideas. Dr. Paul Mayne and Dr. Peter Robertson are thanked for their comments on the correlation matrix pertaining to the CPT parameters. The anonymous journal reviewers are thanked for their constructive comments that have helped sharpen this paper. The opinions expressed in this paper, however, are those of the writers, and do not necessarily reflect the view of these individuals.
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Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering
Volume 132 • Issue 3 • March 2006
Pages: 337 - 350
Copyright
© 2006 ASCE.
History
Received: Mar 1, 2005
Accepted: Aug 11, 2005
Published online: Mar 1, 2006
Published in print: Mar 2006
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