TECHNICAL PAPERS
Sep 1, 1999

Point-Estimate Method as Numerical Quadrature

Publication: Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering
Volume 125, Issue 9

Abstract

Rosenblueth's point-estimate method for approximating the low-order moments of functions of random variables is widely used in geotechnical reliability analyses. It is a special case of numerical quadrature based on orthogonal polynomials. For normal variables, it corresponds to Gauss-Hermite quadrature, but Rosenblueth's procedure automatically generates the weights and abscissas of Gauss-Legendre and Gauss-Laguerre quadrature as well. Despite beliefs to the contrary, the method is not a form of Monte Carlo simulation or FOSM Taylor series expansion. The method is reasonably robust and can be satisfactorily accurate for a wide range of practical problems, although the computational requirements increase rapidly with the number of uncertain quantities. Caution should be exercised in applying the method when transformation of the uncertain quantities severely changes the form of the distributions or when moments of order greater than the two are involved. Examples with closed-form solutions serve to illustrate the use and accuracy of the method.

Get full access to this article

View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.

References

1.
Abramowitz, M., and Stegun, I. A. (1964). Handbook of mathematical functions. Dover Publications, New York.
2.
Duncan, J. M. (1999). “The use of back analysis to reduce slope failure risk: The seventh annual Arthur Casagrande memorial lecture.” Civ. Engrg. Pract., J. Boston Soc. of Civ. Engrs. Sect., ASCE, Vol. 14(1).
3.
Evans, M., Hastings, N., and Peacock, B. (1993). Statistical distributions. Wiley, New York.
4.
Harr, M. E. (1987). Reliability-Based Design in Civil Engineering, McGraw-Hill, New York.
5.
Harr, M. E. (1989). “Probabilistic estimates for multivariate analyses.” Appl. Math. Modelling, 13(5), 313–318.
6.
Hildebrand, F. B. (1956). Introduction to numerical analysis. McGraw-Hill, New York.
7.
Hong, H. P. (1996). “Point-estimate moment-based reliability analysis.” Civ. Engrg. Sys., 13(4), 281–194.
8.
Hong, H. P. (1998). “An efficient point estimate method for probabilistic analysis.” Reliability Engrg. and Sys. Safety, 59(3), 261–167.
9.
Li, K. S. (1992). “Point-estimate method for calculating statistical moments.”J. of Engrg. Mech., ASCE, 118(7), 1506–1511.
10.
Lind, N. C. (1983). “Modelling uncertainty in discrete dynamical systems.” Appl. Math. Modelling, 7(3), 146–152.
11.
Miller, A. C. III, and Rice, T. R. (1983). “Discrete approximations of probability distributions.” Mgmt. Sci., 29(3), 352–362.
12.
Press, W. H., Teukolsky, S. A., Vetterling, W. T., and Flannery, B. P. (1992). Numerical recipes in FORTRAN: The art of scientific computation. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K.
13.
Rosenblueth, E. (1975). “Point estimates for probability moments.” Proc., Nat. Acad. of Sci., 72(10), 3812–3814.
14.
Rosenblueth, E. (1981). “Two-point estimates in probabilities.” Appl. Math. Modelling, 5(2), 329–335.
15.
Salzer, H. E., Zucker, R., and Capuano, R. (1952). “Table of the zeros and weight factors of the first twenty Hermite polynomials.” J. of Res., Nat. Bureau of Standards, 48, RP2294, 111–116.
16.
Taylor, D. W. (1948). Fundamentals of soil mechanics. Wiley, New York.
17.
Wolff, T. F. ( 1996). “Probabilistic slope stability in theory and practice.” Uncertainty in the Geologic Environment, ASCE, New York, 419–433.
18.
Wong, F. S. (1985). “First-order, second-moment methods.” Comp. and Struct., 20(4), 779–791.

Information & Authors

Information

Published In

Go to Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering
Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering
Volume 125Issue 9September 1999
Pages: 779 - 786

History

Received: Oct 19, 1998
Published online: Sep 1, 1999
Published in print: Sep 1999

Permissions

Request permissions for this article.

Authors

Affiliations

Fellow, ASCE
Member, ASCE
Consulting Engr., 23 Fredana Rd., Waban, MA 02468.
Prof. and Chair., Dept. of Civ. and Envir. Engrg., Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742.

Metrics & Citations

Metrics

Citations

Download citation

If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.

Cited by

View Options

Get Access

Access content

Please select your options to get access

Log in/Register Log in via your institution (Shibboleth)
ASCE Members: Please log in to see member pricing

Purchase

Save for later Information on ASCE Library Cards
ASCE Library Cards let you download journal articles, proceedings papers, and available book chapters across the entire ASCE Library platform. ASCE Library Cards remain active for 24 months or until all downloads are used. Note: This content will be debited as one download at time of checkout.

Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.
ASCE Library Card (5 downloads)
$105.00
Add to cart
ASCE Library Card (20 downloads)
$280.00
Add to cart
Buy Single Article
$35.00
Add to cart

Get Access

Access content

Please select your options to get access

Log in/Register Log in via your institution (Shibboleth)
ASCE Members: Please log in to see member pricing

Purchase

Save for later Information on ASCE Library Cards
ASCE Library Cards let you download journal articles, proceedings papers, and available book chapters across the entire ASCE Library platform. ASCE Library Cards remain active for 24 months or until all downloads are used. Note: This content will be debited as one download at time of checkout.

Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.
ASCE Library Card (5 downloads)
$105.00
Add to cart
ASCE Library Card (20 downloads)
$280.00
Add to cart
Buy Single Article
$35.00
Add to cart

Media

Figures

Other

Tables

Share

Share

Copy the content Link

Share with email

Email a colleague

Share