Stochastic Event-Based Approach to Generate Concurrent Hourly Mean Sea Level Pressure and Wind Sequences for Estuarine Flood Risk Assessment
Publication: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 13, Issue 6
Abstract
The determination of the annual exceedence probability (AEP) of extreme water levels in complex estuarine systems is an important and challenging issue in flood management. Extreme estuarine levels are caused by the combined effects of river flows, local winds, and coastal ocean levels. This paper describes a stochastic, event-based approach for generating concurrent hourly mean sea level pressure (MSLP) and wind speed, which are needed in a larger project to derive stochastic hourly river flows, winds, and coastal ocean levels to drive a hydrodynamic model for estuarine flood level simulation. The minimum MSLP versus rainfall and maximum wind speed versus rainfall relationships for the extreme flood events at the daily time scale are first used to generate minimum daily MSLP and maximum daily wind speed using a nonparametric resampling method. The generated minimum daily MSLP and maximum daily wind speed are then used to scale concurrent hourly MSLP and wind speed sequences resampled from the historical record. This approach is novel because it is simple, generic, and computationally efficient for generating stochastic cross-correlated forcing time series for any estuarine hydrodynamic and flood risk study. The approach is tested using 50 years of forcing data from the Gippsland Lakes system in southeast Australia. The results indicate that the approach produces realistic stochastic concurrent hourly sequences of MSLP and wind speed that preserve and distinguish the MSLP-rainfall and wind speed-rainfall relationships for different synoptic weather conditions and times of the year. The approach also produces hourly and daily minimum MSLP and maximum wind speed with similar AEP characteristics as the historical data.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Acknowledgments
This project was funded by the Australian Research Council Linkage Grant No. UNSPECIFIEDC00106804, East and West Gippsland Catchment Management Authority, Gippsland Ports Authority, Gippsland Coastal Board, Department of Sustainability and Environment, and Wellington Shire. The writers wish to acknowledge the contributions of the project technical review panel comprising Prof. George Kuczera, Dr. Andrew McCowan, Dr. Rory Nathan, and Dr. Alan Seed.
References
Adamson, P. T., Metcalfe, A. V., and Parmentier, B. (1999). “Bivariate extreme value distribution: An application of the Gibbs sampler to the analysis of floods.” Water Resour. Res., 35, 2825–2832.
Beard, L. R. (1974). “Flood flow frequency techniques.” CRWR Tech. Rep. No. 119, Center for Research in Water Resources, Univ. of Texas at Austin, Austin, Tex.
BOM. (2001). “Climate data.” Australia Bureau of Meteorology, http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/how/sitedat.shtml (May 2001 ).
Claps, P., and Laio, F. (2003). “Can continuous streamflow data support flood frequency analysis? An alternative to the partial duration series approach.” Water Resour. Res., 39, 1216–1226.
Coles, S. G., and Tawn, J. A. (1991). “Modelling extreme multivariate events.” J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. B (Methodol.), 53, 377–392.
Coles, S. G., and Tawn, J. A. (1994). “Statistical methods for multivariate extremes: An application to structural design.” Appl. Stat., 43, 1–48.
EGCMA. (2007). “East Gippsland floods—The effects of floods.” East Gippsland Catchment Management Authority, ⟨http://www.egcma.com.au/file/Floods%20Week3_July%2025_1.pdf⟩ (July 2007 ).
EGSC. (2001). “1998 flood—The road to recovery in East Gippsland.” East Gippsland Shire Council, http://www.egipps.vic.gov.au/98flood/default.htm (June 2001 ).
Grantz, K., Rajagopalan, B., Clark, M., and Zagona, E. (2005). “A technique for incorporating large-scale climate information in basin-scale ensemble streamflow forecasts.” Water Resour. Res., 41, 1–13.
Grayson, R. B., et al. (2004). “Gippsland lakes flood level modelling project.” CEAH Rep. No. 1/04, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Univ. of Melbourne.
Hawkes, P. J., Gouldby, B. P., Tawn, J. A., and Owen, M. W. (2002). “The joint probability of waves and water levels in coastal engineering design.” J. Hydraul. Res., 40, 241–251.
Holland, G. J., Lynch, A. H., and Leslie, L. M. (1987). “Australian east-coast cyclones. Part I: Synoptic overview and case study.” Mon. Weather Rev., 115, 3024–3036.
Hopkins, L. C., and Holland, G. J. (1997). “Australian heavy-rain days and associated east coast cyclones: 1958–92.” J. Clim., 10, 621–635.
Lall, U., and Moon, Y. (1993). “Kernel flood frequency estimators: Bandwidth selection and kernel choice.” Water Resour. Res., 29(4), 1003–1015.
Lall, U., and Sharma, A. (1996). “A nearest neighbor bootstrap for resampling hydrologic time series.” Water Resour. Res., 32(3), 679–693.
Loader, C. (1999). Local regression and likelihood, Springer, New York.
McMaster, M. J., Provis, D. G., Grayson, R. B., and Bishop, W. A. (2003). “Calibration and testing of a hydrodynamic model of the Gippsland Lakes.” Proc., Int. Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM 2003), D. A. Post, ed., Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, 909–914.
Parlange, M. B., and Katz, R. W. (2000). “An extended version of the Richardson model for simulating daily weather variables.” J. Appl. Meteorol., 39, 610–622.
Prairie, J. R., Rajagopalan, B., Fulp, T. J., and Zagona, E. A. (2005). “Statistical nonparametric model for natural salt estimation.” J. Environ. Eng., 131(1), 130–138.
Pritchard, D. W. (1967). “What is an estuary: Physical viewpoint.” Estuaries, G. H. Lauff, ed., American Association for the Advancement of Science, Washington, D.C., 3–5.
QDNRM. (2000). “The SILO data drill.” Queensland Dept. of Natural Resources and Mines, ⟨http://www.nrm.qld.gov.au/silo/datadrill/datadrill-frameset.html⟩ (April 2002 ).
Rajagopalan, B., and Lall, U. (1999). “A k-nearest-neighbor simulator for daily precipitation and other weather variables.” Water Resour. Res., 35, 3089–3101.
Rajagopalan, B., Lall, U., Tarboton, D. G., and Bowles, D. S. (1997). “Multivariate nonparametric resampling scheme for generation of daily weather variables.” Stochastic Hydrol. Hydraul., 11, 65–93.
Richardson, C. W. (1981). “Stochastic simulation of daily precipitation, temperature, and solar radiation.” Water Resour. Res., 17, 182–190.
SASNZ. (2002). “Structural design action. Part 2: Wind action.” Australian/New Zealand Standard AS/NZS 1170.2:2002, Standards Australia/Standards New Zealand, Sydney/Wellington.
Scheffner, N. W., and Borgman, L. E. (1992). “Stochastic time-seriesrepresentation of wave data.” J. Waterway, Port, Coastal, Ocean Eng., 118(4), 337–351.
Shepard, D. (1968). “A two-dimensional interpolation function for irregularly-spaced data.” Proc., 23rd Association of Computational Mechanics National Conf., ACM Press, New York, 517–524.
Silverman, B. W. (1986). Density estimation for statistics and data analysis, Monographs on Statistics and Applied Probability, 26, Chapman and Hall, New York.
Srikanthan, R. (1985). “Stochastic simulation of daily climate data.” Proc., 4th Int. Hydrology Symp., 542–554.
Tan, K. S. (2004). “Stochastic joint probability modelling of estuarine flood levels.” Ph.D. thesis, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Univ. of Melbourne.
Tan, K. S., et al. (2001). “Establishing design water levels in the Gippsland Lakes—Proposed methodology and preliminary analysis.” Proc., 15th Australian Coastal and Ocean Engineering Conf., Institution of Engineers Australia, 551–556.
Tan, K. S., Chiew, F. H. S., and Grayson, R. B. (2005a). “A modelling-based joint probability approach to estimating estuarine flood levels.” Proc., 29th Hydrology and Water Resources Symp. (CD-ROM), Institution of Engineers Australia.
Tan, K. S., Chiew, F. H. S., and Grayson, R. B. (2006). “Stochastic generation of daily spatial rainfall for regional flood risk assessment.” Proc., iEMSs 3rd Biennial Meeting of the Int. Environmental Modelling and Software Society (CD-ROM).
Tan, K. S., Chiew, F. H. S., and Grayson, R. B. (2007). “A steepness index unit volume flood hydrograph approach for subdaily flow disaggregation.” Hydrolog. Process., 21(20), 2807–2816.
Tan, K. S., Chiew, F. H. S., Grayson, R. B., Scanlon, P. J., and Siriwardena, L. (2005b). “Calibration of a daily rainfall-runoff model to estimate high daily flows.” Proc., Int. Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM 2005) (CD-ROM), Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, 2960–2966.
Tan, K. S., and Grayson, R. B. (2002). “Reconstruction of coastal ocean levels offshore of lakes entrance for the Gippsland Lakes flood modelling project.” CEAH Rep. No. 3/02, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Univ. of Melbourne.
Tan, K. S., Grayson, R. B., Chiew, F. H. S., McMahon, T. A., and Western, A. W. (2002). “Exploring cross-correlations of environmental forcings in a coastal lagoon.” Proc., 27th Hydrol. and Water Resources Symp. (CD-ROM), Institution of Engineers Australia.
Townsend, I., and Pethick, J. (2002). “Estuarine flooding and managed retreat.” Philos. Trans. R. Soc. London, Ser. A, 360, 1477–1495.
USGS. (1982). “Guidelines for determining flood flow frequency.” Bulletin 17B, Hydrologic Subcommittee, Office of Water Data Coordination, US Geological Survey, Dept. of the Interior, Washington, D.C.
Wallis, T. W. R., and Griffiths, J. F. (1997). “Simulated meteorological input for agricultural models.” Agric. Forest Meteorol., 88, 241–258.
Wilks, D. S. (1999). “Simultaneous stochastic simulation of daily precipitation, temperature and solar radiation at multiple sites in complex terrain.” Agric. Forest Meteorol., 96, 85–101.
Wright, L. D., Nielsen, P., Short, A. D., Coffey, F. C., and Green, M. O. (1982). “Nearshore and surfzone morphodynamics of a storm wave environment: Eastern Bass Strait.” Australian Coastal Studies Unit Technical Rep. No. 82/3, Dept. of Geography, Univ. of Sydney, NSW, Australia.
Zachary, S., Feld, G., Ward, G., and Wolfram, J. (1998). “Multivariate extrapolation in offshore environment.” Appl. Ocean. Res., 20, 273–295.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 13 • Issue 6 • June 2008
Pages: 449 - 460
Copyright
© 2008 ASCE.
History
Received: Mar 22, 2006
Accepted: Oct 24, 2006
Published online: Jun 1, 2008
Published in print: Jun 2008
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.