Coupled Semivariogram Uncertainty of Hydrogeological and Geophysical Data on Capture Zone Uncertainty Analysis
Publication: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 13, Issue 10
Abstract
This study investigates capture zone uncertainty that relates to the coupled semivariogram uncertainty of hydrogeological and geophysical data. Semivariogram uncertainty is represented by the uncertainty in structural parameters (range, sill, and nugget). We used the beta distribution function to derive the prior distributions of structural parameters. The probability distributions of structural parameters were further updated through the Bayesian approach with the Gaussian likelihood functions. Cokriging of noncollocated pumping test data and electrical resistivity data was conducted to better estimate hydraulic conductivity through autosemivariograms and pseudo-cross-semivariogram. Sensitivities of capture zone variability with respect to the spatial variability of hydraulic conductivity, porosity and aquifer thickness were analyzed using ANOVA. The proposed methodology was applied to the analysis of capture zone uncertainty at the Chicot aquifer in Southwestern Louisiana, where a regional groundwater flow model was developed. MODFLOW-MODPATH was adopted to delineate the capture zone. The ANOVA results showed that both capture zone area and compactness were sensitive to hydraulic conductivity variation. We concluded that the capture zone uncertainty due to the semivariogram uncertainty is much higher than that due to the kriging uncertainty for given semivariograms. In other words, the sole use of conditional variances of kriging may greatly underestimate the flow response uncertainty. Semivariogram uncertainty should also be taken into account in the uncertainty analysis.
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Acknowledgments
This research was supported in part by Louisiana Water Resources Research Institute under Grant Nos. 01HQPA0010 and 06HQGR0088. The writers thank D. Carlson and R. Milner at Louisiana Geological Survey and C. V. Deutsch at Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Alberta, Canada for valuable comments in this work.
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Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 13 • Issue 10 • October 2008
Pages: 915 - 925
Copyright
© 2008 ASCE.
History
Received: Apr 27, 2007
Accepted: Jan 14, 2008
Published online: Oct 1, 2008
Published in print: Oct 2008
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