Streamflow Forecasting Using Different Artificial Neural Network Algorithms
Publication: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 12, Issue 5
Abstract
Forecasts of future events are required in many activities associated with planning and operation of the components of a water resources system. For the hydrologic component, there is a need for both short term and long term forecasts of streamflow events in order to optimize the system or to plan for future expansion or reduction. This paper presents a comparison of different artificial neural networks (ANNs) algorithms for short term daily streamflow forecasting. Four different ANN algorithms, namely, backpropagation, conjugate gradient, cascade correlation, and Levenberg–Marquardt are applied to continuous streamflow data of the North Platte River in the United States. The models are verified with untrained data. The results from the different algorithms are compared with each other. The correlation analysis was used in the study and found to be useful for determining appropriate input vectors to the ANNs.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
References
Adeli, H., and Hung, S. L. (1995). Machine learning neural networks, genetic algorithms, and fuzzy systems, Wiley, New York.
Antar, M. A., Elassiouti, I., and Allam, M. N. (2006). “Rainfall-runoff modelling using artificial neural networks technique: A Blue Nile catchment case study.” Hydrolog. Process., 20(5), 1201–1216.
ASCE Task Committee on Application of Artificial Neural Networks in Hydrology. (2000a). “Artificial neural networks in hydrology. I: Preliminary concepts.” J. Hydrol. Eng., 5(2), 115–123.
ASCE Task Committee on Application of Artificial Neural Networks in Hydrology. (2000b). “Artificial neural networks in hydrology. II: Hydrologic applications.” J. Hydrol. Eng., 5(2), 124–137.
Coulibaly, P., Anctil, F., and Bobe’e, B. (2000). “Daily reservoir inflow forecasting using artificial neural networks with stopped training approach.” J. Hydrol., 230(3–4), 244–257.
Daliakopoulos, I. N., Coulibaly, P., and Tsanis, I. K. (2005). “Groundwater level forecasting using artificial neural networks.” J. Hydrol., 309, 229–240.
Hsu, K. L., Gupta, H. V., and Sorooshian, S. (1995). “Artificial neural network modeling of rainfall-runoff process.” Water Resour. Res., 31(10), 2517–2530.
Huang, W., Xu, B., and Hilton, A. C. (2004). “Forecasting flows in Apalachicola River using neural networks.” Hydrolog. Process., 18(13), 2545–2564.
Imrie, C. E., Durucan, S., and Korre, A. (2000). “River flow prediction using artificial neural networks: Generalization beyond the calibration range.” J. Hydrol., 233(1–4), 138–153.
Jain, S. K., Das, D., and Srivastava, D. K. (1999). “Application of ANN for reservoir inflow prediction and operation.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., 125(5), 263–271.
Karunanithi, N., Grenney, W. J., Whitley, D., and Bovee, K. (1994). “Neural networks for river flow prediction.” J. Comput. Civ. Eng., 8(2), 201–220.
Kisi, O. (2004). “River flow modeling using artificial neural networks.” J. Hydrol. Eng., 9(1), 60–63.
Maier, H. R., and Dandy, G. C. (1996). “Use of artificial neural networks for prediction of water quality parameters.” Water Resour. Res., 32(4), 1013–1022.
More, J. J. (1977). The Levenberg—Marquardt algorithm: Implementation and theory, numerical analysis, G. A. Watson, ed., Lecture Notes in Mathematics 630, Springer, New York, 105–116.
Nayak, P. C., Sudheer, K. P., Rangan, D. M., and Ramasastri, K. S. (2004). “A neurofuzzy computing technique for modeling hydrological time series.” J. Hydrol., 291(1–2), 52–66.
Olsson, J., et al. (2004). “Neural networks for rainfall forecasting by atmospheric downscaling.” J. Hydrol. Eng., 9(1), 1–12.
Reed, R. D., and Marks, R. J. (1998). Neural smithing: Supervised learning in feedforward artificial neural networks, MIT Press, Cambridge, Mass. 163–204.
Rumelhart, D. E., Hinton, G. E., and Williams, R. J. (1986). “Learning internal representation by error propagation.” Parallel distributed processing: Explorations in the microstructure of cognition, D. E. Rumelhart and J. L. McClelland, eds., Vol. 1, MIT Press, Cambridge, Mass., 318–362.
Saad, M., Bigras, P., Turgeon, A., and Duquette, R. (1996). “Fuzzy learning decomposition for scheduling of hydroelectric power systems.” Water Resour. Res., 32(1), 179–186.
Shamseldin, A. Y. (1997). “Application of neural network technique to rainfall-runoff modelling.” J. Hydrol., 199(3–4), 272–294.
Sudheer, K. P., Gosain, A. K., and Ramasastri, K. S. (2002). “A data-driven algorithm for constructing artificial neural network rainfall-runoff models.” Hydrolog. Process., 16(6), 1325–1330.
Thirumalaiah, K., and Deo, M. C. (1998). “River stage forecasting using artificial neural networks.” J. Hydrol. Eng., 3(1), 26–32.
Thirumalaiah, K., and Deo, M. C. (2000). “Hydrological forecasting using neural networks.” J. Hydrol. Eng., 5(2), 180–189.
Zealand, C. M., Burn, D. H., and Simonovic, S. P. (1999). “Short term streamflow forecasting using artificial neural networks.” J. Hydrol., 214(1–4), 32–48.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Copyright
© 2007 ASCE.
History
Received: Jul 27, 2005
Accepted: Dec 5, 2006
Published online: Sep 1, 2007
Published in print: Sep 2007
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.