Climate Model Simulation of Point Rainfall Frequency Characteristics
Publication: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 11, Issue 6
Abstract
Atmospheric scientists are continuously improving the capability of climate models to predict accurately the frequency of heavy precipitation events in a changing climate. A brief review of recent studies related to the accuracy of precipitation outputs from climate models indicated that most of them concentrate on spatially aggregated precipitation patterns rather than point rainfall frequency characteristics. To fill this gap, this verification study focused on point rainfall frequency characteristics and used the most recent climate model results (that is, results from a regional climate model known as CMM5, by Liang et al.). Both the conventional moving-window analyses and an alternative meteorological event-based approach were used in this study to examine more completely the capability of CMM5 in reproducing rainfall events as observed at individual points. It was found that CMM5 reproduced the major characteristics of point rainfall frequency distributions reasonably well. The meteorological event-based analyses proposed in this study also assisted in the identification of a minor but perhaps systematic bias on the part of CMM5 in overestimating days with small amounts of precipitation. The overall performance of the current generation of climate models as demonstrated in this study encourages more and wider uses of their results in hydrologic engineering.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Acknowledgments
The writers gratefully acknowledge the financial support provided for this study by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada. Daily RCM precipitation data for this study were provided by Dr. Xin-Zhong Liang of the Illinois State Water Survey, in Champaign, Illinois. The valuable suggestions and assistance provided by Dr. Liang contributed greatly to the completion of this study and are very much appreciated.
References
Adams, B. J., Fraser, H. G., Howard, C. D. D., and Hanafy, M. S. (1986). “Meteorological data analysis for drainage system design.” J. Environ. Eng., 112(5), 827–848.
Adams, B. J., and Papa, F. (2000). Urban stormwater management planning with analytical probabilistic models, Wiley, Canada, New York.
Angel, J. R., and Huff, F. A. (1997). “Changes in heavy rainfall in Midwestern United States.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., 123(4), 246–249.
Boer, G. J., Flato, G. M., and Ramsden, D. (2000a). “A transient climate change simulation with greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing: Projected climate for the 21st century.” Clim. Dyn., 16(6), 427–450.
Boer, G. J., Flato, G. M., Reader, M. C., and Ramsden, D. (2000b). “A transient climate change simulation with greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing: Experimental design and comparison with the instrumental record for the 20th century.” Clim. Dyn., 16(6), 405–425.
Changnon, S. A., and Westcott, N. E. (2002). “Heavy rainstorms in Chicago: Increasing frequency, altered impacts, and future implications.” J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc., 38(5), 1467–1475.
Chen, M., Dickinson, R. E., Zeng, X., and Hahmann, A. N. (1996). “Comparison of precipitation observed over the continental United States to that simulated by a climate model.” J. Clim., 9(9), 2233–2249.
Chow, V. T., Maidment, D. R., and Mays, L. W. (1988). Applied Hydrology, McGraw-Hill, New York.
Durrans, S. R., Julian, L. T., and Yekta, M. (2002). “Estimation of depth-area relationships using radar-rainfall data.” J. Hydrol. Eng., 7(5), 356–367.
Easterling, D. R., Meehl, G. A., Parmesan, C., Changnon, S. A., Karl, T. R., and Mearns, L. O. (2000). “Climate extremes: Observations, modeling, and impacts.” Science, 289(5487), 2068–2074.
Fowler, H. J., and Kilsby, C. G. (2003). “Implications of changes in seasonal and annual extreme rainfall.” Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(13), 1720–1723.
Gregory, J. M., and Mitchell, J. F. B. (1995). “Simulation of daily variability of surface temperature and precipitation over Europe in the current and climates using the UKMO climate model.” Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 121(526), 1451–1476.
Kalnay, E., et al. (1996). “NCEP/NCAR reanalysis project.” Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 77(3), 437–471.
Kanamitsu, M., et al. (2002). “NCEP-DOE AMIP-II reanalysis (R-2).” Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 83(11), 1631–1643.
Karl, T. R., Knight, R. W., and Plummer, N. (1995). “Trends in high-frequency climate variability in the twentieth century.” Nature, 377, 217–220.
Kharin, V. V., and Zwiers, F. W. (2000). “Changes in the extremes in an ensemble of transient climate simulations with a coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM.” J. Clim., 13(21), 3760–3788.
Kunkel, K. E., and Liang, X.-Z. (2005). “GCM simulations of the climate in the central United States.” J. Clim., 18(7), 1016–1031.
Kunkel, K. E., Andsager, K., and Easterling, D. R. (1999). “Long-term trends in extreme precipitation events over the conterminous United States and Canada.” J. Clim., 12(8), 2515–2527.
Kunkel, K. E., et al. (2002). “Observations and regional climate model simulations of heavy precipitation events and seasonal anomalies: A comparison.” J Hydrometeorol., 3(3), 322–334.
Liang, X.-Z., Li, L., Kunkel, K. E., Ting, M., and Wang, J. X. L. (2004). “Regional climate model simulation of U.S. precipitation during 1982–2002. I: Annual cycle.” J. Clim., 17(18), 3510–3529.
Mekis, E., and Hogg, W. D. (1999). “Rehabilitation and analysis of Canadian daily precipitation time series.” Atmos.-Ocean., 37(1), 53–85.
Osborn, T. J., and Hulme, M. (1997). “Development of a relationship between station and grid-box rainday frequencies for climate model evaluation.” J. Clim., 10(8), 1885–1908.
Osborn, T. J., Hulme, M., Jones, P. D., and Basnett, T. A. (2000). “Observed trends in the daily intensity of United Kingdom precipitation.” Int. J. Climatol., 20(4), 347–364.
Palmer, T. N., and Raisanen, J. (2002). “Quantifying the risk of extreme seasonal precipitation events in a changing climate.” Nature, 415, 512–514.
Pitman, A. J., Henderson-Sellers, A., and Yang, Z.-L. (1990). “Sensitivity of regional climates to localized precipitation in global models.” Nature, 346, 734–737.
Restrepo-Posada, P. J., and Eagleson, P. S. (1982). “Identification of independent rainstorms.” J. Hydrol., 55(1982), 303–319.
Trenberth, K. E. (1999). “Conceptual framework for changes of extremes of the hydrologic cycle with climate change.” Clim. Change, 42(1), 327–339.
U.S. Weather Bureau. (1958). “Rainfall intensity-frequency regime. 2—Southeastern United States.” Tech. Paper No. 29, U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Washington, D.C.
Watterson, I. G., and Dix, M. R. (2003). “Simulated changes due to global warming in daily precipitation means and extremes and their interpretation using gamma distribution.” J. Geophys. Res., 108(D13), 4379–4399.
Wilby, R. L., and Wigley, T. M. L. (1997). “Downscaling general circulation model output: A review of methods and limitations.” Prog. Phys. Geogr., 21(4), 530–548.
Wilby, R. L., et al. (1998). “Statistical downscaling of general circulation model output: A comparison of methods.” Water Resour. Res., 34(11), 2995–3008.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Copyright
© 2006 ASCE.
History
Received: Jun 29, 2005
Accepted: Jan 31, 2006
Published online: Nov 1, 2006
Published in print: Nov 2006
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.