Evaluation of the National Weather Service Operational Hydrologic Model and Forecasts for the American River Basin
Publication: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 11, Issue 5
Abstract
This paper evaluates the National Weather Service operational hydrologic model and operational flow forecasts for several subbasins of the American River. The evaluation includes: (1) the quality of the operational flow forecasts with up to lead time; (2) the hydrologic model ability to reproduce observed mean daily flows; and (3) the reliability of the ensemble streamflow predictions of the hydrologic model to reproduce extremes of the monthly volume of full natural flow to Folsom Lake. The results indicate that the model represents the observed flow record well for sites and/or flow ranges unaffected by upstream regulation. Real time operational forecast produced by a forecaster that considers model predictions have good skill out to with precipitation forecast contributing significantly to forecast uncertainty. Certain high-flow events with a spatially distributed mix of snow/rain over the basin may not be reproduced well by the basic spatially lumped structure of the operational snow–soil–channel model. It is suggested to incorporate upstream regulation rules into the operational models for better reproduction of observed medium and low flows. Routine evaluation based on a national archive of operational flow forecasts and observations is also recommended.
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Acknowledgments
The writers gratefully acknowledge the many and varied contributions of CNRFC personnel, and especially Eric Strem, and Robert Hartman, in making data available and in providing comments and reviews of our results and of early versions of this paper. They also thank three anonymous reviewers for their contribution toward improving the clarity of the original manuscript. The research was sponsored by the Ecosystem Restoration California Bay Delta Authority (Award No. UNSPECIFIEDERP-02-P13), the NOAA Office of Global Programs (Award No. UNSPECIFIEDNA16GP2711), and by the PIER Program of the California Energy Commission (Award No. UNSPECIFIED500-02-008) as part of the Integrated Forecast and Reservoir Management (INFORM) Project. Additional support was provided by the USA Corps of Engineers, Sacramento District, under Award No. UNSPECIFIEDDACW05-02-P-0183. The opinions expressed herein are those of the writers and do not necessarily reflect those of the sponsoring Agencies and their subagencies.
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Published In
Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 11 • Issue 5 • September 2006
Pages: 392 - 407
Copyright
© 2006 ASCE.
History
Received: Nov 9, 2004
Accepted: Jan 19, 2006
Published online: Sep 1, 2006
Published in print: Sep 2006
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