El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Templates and Streamflow Prediction
Publication: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 9, Issue 5
Abstract
The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) template concept is presented for seasonal streamflow prediction methodology by considering the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) variables. The methodology provides linguistic and quantitative inference capabilities. The prediction model uses the geostatistical (Kriging) technique. Each ENSO template has nine categories including one with high SST and low SOI values that represents the El Niño event. Similarly, the category with low SST and high SOI values depicts the La Niña event. The application of the methodology is presented for the seasonal streamflow records in the southeastern part of the Australian continent along the Pacific Ocean. April–September streamflow is predicted by using five different lead times including 3-month ENSO indicator averages. The seasonal streamflow predictions at different lag times are obtained given the values of SST and SOI. The overall relative prediction error is rather small at about 13%. The bigger the lag the bigger is the prediction error. However, the relative error between averages of observation and prediction values is less than 5%. Similar ENSO templates can be used for streamflow prediction in other parts of the world.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
References
Altunkaynak, A., Özger, M., and Şen, Z.(2003). “Triple diagram model of level fluctuations in Lake Van, Turkey.” Hydrology Earth Syst. Sci.,7(2), 235–244.
Amarasekera, K. N., Lee, R. F., Williams, E. R., and Eltahir, E. A. B.(1999). “ENSO and the natural variability in the flow of tropical rivers.” J. Hydrol., 200, 24–39.
Anderson, R. L.(1942). “Distribution of the serial correlation coefficient.” Ann. Math. Stat., 8(1), 1–13.
Arkin, P. A., and Janowiak, J. E. (1993). “Tropical and subtropical precipitation.” Atlas of satellite observations related to global change, R. J. Gurney, J. L. Foster, and C. L. Parkinson, eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., 163–180.
Cane, M. A.(1983). “Oceanographic events during El Niño.” Science, 222(4629), 1189–1195.
Chiew, F. H. S., and McMahon, T. A.(2002). “Global ENSO-streamflow teleconnection, streamflow forecasting and interannual variability.” J. Hydrol., Sci.,47(3), 505–522.
Glantz, M. H., Katz, R. W., and Nicholls, N. (1991). Teleconnections linking worldwide climate anomalies, Cambridge University Press, New York.
Hamilton, K.(1988). “A detailed examination of the extra-tropical response to tropical El Niño/Southern Oscillation events.” J. Climatol.,8(1), 67–86.
Hansen, J., and Lebedeff, S.(1987). “Global trends of measured surface air temperature.” J. Geophys. Res., 92, 13345–13372.
Isaaks, E. H., and Srivastava, R. M. (1989). An introduction to applied geostatistics, Oxford University Press, New York.
Journel, A. G., and Huijbregts, Ch. J. (1978). Mining geostatistic, Academic, San Diego.
Kahya, E., and Dracup, J. A.(1993). “U.S. streamflow patterns in relation to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation.” Water Resour. Res., 29(8), 2491–2503.
Kousky, V. E., Kagano, M. T., and Cavalcanti, I. F. A.(1984). “A view of the Southern Oscillation: Oceanic-atmospheric circulation changes and related rainfall anomalies.” Tellus, 36A(5), 490–504.
Matheron, G.(1963). “Principles of geostatistics.” Econ. Geol., 58, 1246–1266.
Moss, M. E., and Tasker, G. D. (1987). “The role of stochastic hydrology in dealing with climatic variability.” The influence of climatic change and climatic variability on the hydrologic regime and water resources, 168, International Association of Hydrological Sciences, Wallingford, U.K., 201–207.
Nicholls, N. (1987). “The El Niño/Southern Oscillation phenomenon.” Rep., National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colo.
Piechota, T. C., Chiew, F. H. R., Dracup, J. A., and McMahon, T. A.(2001). “Development of exceedance probability streamflow forecast.” J. Hydrologic Eng., 6(1), 20–28.
Piechota, T. C., and Dracup, J. A.(1999). “Long-range streamflow forecasting using El-Niño southern oscillation indicators.” J. Hydrologic Eng., 14(2), 144–151.
Quinn, W. H., Zoph, D. O., Short, K. S., and Kuo Yang, R. T. W.(1978). “Historical trends and statistics of the Southern Oscillation, El Niño, and Indonesian drought.” Fish. Bull., 76(3), 663–678.
Rasmusson, E. M., and Carpenter, T. H.(1982). “Variations in tropical sea surface temperature and surface wind fields associated with the Southern Oscillation/El Niño.” Mon. Weather Rev., 110(5), 354–384.
Rasmusson, E. M., and Carpanter, T. H.(1983). “The relationship between eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures and rainfall over India and Sri Lanka.” Mon. Weather Rev., 111(3), 517–528.
Rasmusson, E. M., and Wallace, J. M.(1983). “Meteorological aspects of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation.” Science, 222(4629), 1195–1202.
Ropelewski, C. F., and Halpert, M. S.(1986). “North American precipitation and temperature patterns associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO).” Mon. Weather Rev., 114(12), 2352–2362.
Ropelewski, C. F., and Halpert, M. S.(1987). “Global and regional scale precipitation patterns associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation.” Mon. Weather Rev., 115(8), 1606–1612.
Ropelewski, C. F., and Halpert, M. S.(1989). “Precipitation patterns associated with the high index phase of the Southern Oscillation.” J. Clim., 2(2), 268–284.
Şen, Z. (1974). “Small sample properties of stationary stochastic processes and the Hurst phenomenon in hydrology.” PhD theses, Univ. of London, London.
Şen, Z.(1978). “Autorun analysis of hydrologic time series.” J. Hydrol., 36, 75–85.
Şen, Z.(1998). “Point cumulative semivariogram for identification of heterogeneities in regional seismicity of Turkey.” Math. Geol., 30(7), 767–787.
Şen, Z., and Altunkaynak, A.(2002). “Discussion of Development of exceedance probability streamflow forecast, by Piechata et al.” J. Hydrologic Eng., 7(3), 265–267.
Subyani, A. M. (1997). “Geostatistical analysis of precipitation in southwest Saudi Arabia.” PhD thesis, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, Colo.
Subyani, A. M., and Şen, Z.(1989). “Geostatistical modeling of the Wasia aquifer in central Saudi Arabia.” J. Hydrol., 110, 295–314.
Thomas, H. A., Jr., and Fiering, M. B. (1962). “Mathematical synthesis of streamflow sequences for the analysis of river basins by simulation.” Chapter 12, Design of water resources systems, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Mass.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 9 • Issue 5 • September 2004
Pages: 368 - 374
Copyright
Copyright © 2004 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Sep 11, 2002
Accepted: Nov 26, 2003
Published online: Aug 16, 2004
Published in print: Sep 2004
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.