Flood Forecasts for Urban Basin with Integrated Hydro‐Meteorological Model
Publication: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 8, Issue 1
Abstract
We describe a system for forecasting flood risk in the 370 km2, largely urban Kifissos Basin, Athens, Greece, located in moderate to steep terrain (∼3 h hydrologic response time). A 42 h flood forecast lead time is achieved through the use of an integrated hydro-meteorological system. Rainfall is forecast, on a 6 km grid, with a chain of nested numerical weather prediction models, consisting of a limited area model initialized with results of a global circulation model. Flood risk is assessed by driving a hydrologic model with the forecasted rainfall. The system’s forecast skill is evaluated for two recent, medium-size storm events. Results are encouraging for this initial operational stage, however, they also indicate that integrated hydro-meterological models are not yet mature tools. The weaker part of flood risk assessment is the rainfall forecast, which underestimated cumulative depths and maximum intensities and overestimated duration.
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Published In
Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 8 • Issue 1 • January 2003
Pages: 1 - 11
Copyright
Copyright © 2003 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Nov 28, 2001
Accepted: Jun 17, 2002
Published online: Dec 13, 2002
Published in print: Jan 2003
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