Application of Gray and Fuzzy Methods for Rainfall Forecasting
Publication: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 5, Issue 4
Abstract
The forecasting of future rainfall is one way to extend the lead time of flood forecasting. This study proposes a rainfall forecast model based on a gray model, in which model parameters are estimated by using a fuzzy goal regression method. A one-time step forecasting technique is introduced to improve forecasting. This improvement allows for forecasting further ahead of the event in question. Ten historical storm events are considered to calibrate and verify the proposed model. Simulation results indicate that the proposed model exhibits reasonable rainfall mass curves and allows for rainfall hyetograph forecasting 1–3 h in advance.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
References
1.
Bardossy, A., Bogardi, I., and Duckstein, L. ( 1990). “Fuzzy regression in hydrology.” Water Resour. Res., 26(7), 1497–1508.
2.
Burlando, P., Rosso, R., Cadavid, L. G., and Salas, J. D. ( 1993). “Forecasting of short-term rainfall using ARMA models.” J. Hydro., Amsterdam, 144, 193–211.
3.
Chang, N. B., Chen, Y. L., and Chen, H. W. ( 1997). “A fuzzy regression analysis for the construction cost estimation of wastewater treatment plants (1) theoretical development.” J. Envir. Sci. Health, A32(4), 885–899.
4.
Chang, N. B., Chen, Y. L., and Yang, H. H. ( 1996). “A fuzzy goal regression model for the construction cost estimation of municipal waste incinerators.” Int. J. Sys. Sci., 27(5), 433–445.
5.
Chang, N. B., and Lu, H. L. ( 1997). “A new approach for long term planning of solid waste management systems using fuzzy global criterion.” J. Envir. Sci. Health, A32(4), 1025–1047.
6.
Chen, S. C. ( 1998). “Application of grey prediction on runoff forecasting.” MS thesis, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, Taiwan.
7.
Chen, S. C., and Yu, P. S. ( 1997). “Application of grey prediction theory on rainfall forecasting.” Proc., 2nd Nat. Symp. of Grey Sys. Theory and Its Application, 176–183 (in Chinese).
8.
Deng, J. L. ( 1989). “Introduction to grey system theory.” J. Grey Sys., 1(1), 1–24.
9.
French, M. N., Krajewsi, W. F., and Cuykendall, R. R. ( 1992). “Rainfall forecasting in space and time using a neural network.” J. Hydro., Amsterdam, 137, 1–31.
10.
Georgakakos, K. P., and Bras, R. L. ( 1984a). “A hydrologically useful station precipitation model: 1. Formulation.” Water Resour. Res., 20(11), 1585–1596.
11.
Georgakakos, K. P., and Bras, R. L. ( 1984b). “A hydrologically useful station precipitation model: 2. Case studies.” Water Resour. Res., 20(11), 1597–1610.
12.
Huang, Y. P., and Huang, C. C. ( 1996). “The integration and application of fuzzy and grey modeling methods.” Fuzzy Sets and Sys., 78, 107–119.
13.
Johnson, E. R., and Bras, R. L. ( 1980). “Multivariate short-term rainfall prediction.” Water Resour. Res., 16(1), 173–185.
14.
Nguyen, V. T. V., McPherson, M. B., and Rouselle, J. ( 1978). “Urban water resource research program.” Tech. Memo. 35, ASCE, New York.
15.
Tanaka, H., and Asia, K. ( 1984). “Fuzzy linear programming problems with fuzzy numbers.” Fuzzy Sets and Sys., 13, 1–10.
16.
Tanaka, H., Uejima, S., and Asia, K. ( 1982). “Linear regression analysis with fuzzy model.” IEEE Trans. on Sys. Mgmt. and Cybernetic, SMC-12, 275–289.
17.
Xia, J. ( 1989). “Research and application of grey system theorem to hydrology.” J. Grey Sys., 1(1), 43–52.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 5 • Issue 4 • October 2000
Pages: 339 - 345
History
Received: Aug 26, 1998
Published online: Oct 1, 2000
Published in print: Oct 2000
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.