Method for Trend Detection in Climatological Variables
Publication: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 2, Issue 4
Abstract
This paper presents a time-series methodology by which a significant trend in climatological variables can be identified and notes how this trend may be related to other climatological variables. The evapotranspiration (ET) record at a monitoring site near Davis, California, shows an upward trend in both the ET and wind speed series. A review of the site history indicates that the upward trend in the wind series is due to relocating the site from the middle of an agricultural field to a more open area. Further analysis of the series indicates that this increase in wind speed has some effect on the yearly ET totals, but could not be used to completely explain the increasing trend in ET.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
References
1.
Box, G. E. P., and Jenkins, G. M. (1976). Time series analysis, forecasting and control. Holden-Day, San Francisco, Calif.
2.
Cayan, D. R., and Weare, B. C. (1977). “Some aspects of recent climatic variability in Davis, California.”Contributions to atmospheric science no. 14, Dept. of Land, Air, and Water Resour., Univ. of California, Davis, Calif.
3.
Climatological data: California sections. (1934–1991). Nat. Oceanic and Atmospheric Admin. (NOAA), Nat. Climate Ctr., Asheville, N.C.
4.
Cryer, J. D. (1986). Time series analysis. Duxbury Press, Boston, Mass.
5.
Dickey, D. A., and Fuller, W. A.(1979). “Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root.”J. Am. Statistical Assn., 74(366), 427–431.
6.
Fuller, W. A. (1976). Introduction to statistical time series. John Wiley & Sons, Inc., New York, N.Y.
7.
Gupta, R. K., and Chauhan, H. S.(1986). “Stochastic modeling of irrigation requirements.”J. Irrig. and Drain. Engrg., ASCE, 121(1), 655–676.
8.
Hameed, T., Mariño, M. A., and Shumway, R. H.(1994). “Transfer-function-noise modeling of evapotranspiration.”J. Irrig. and Drain. Engrg., ASCE, 121(2), 159–169.
9.
Mariño, M. A., Tracy, J. C., and Taghavi, S. A.(1993). “Forecasting of reference crop evapotranspiration.”Agric. Water Mgmt., 24(3), 163–187.
10.
Mendenhall, W., and Sincich, T. (1989). A second course in business statistics: regression analysis, Dellen Publishing Co., San Francisco, Calif.
11.
Phillips, P. C. B.(1986). “Understanding spurious regressions in econometrics.”J. Econometrics, 33, 311–340.
12.
SCA. (1992). Statistical software for forecasting and time series analysis. Scientific Computing Associates, DeKalb, Ill.
13.
Shumway, R. H. (1988). Applied statistical time series analysis. Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, N.J.
14.
“Vegetative water use in California.” (1975–77). Bull. 113-3, California Dept. of Water Resour., Sacramento, Calif.
15.
Wigley, T. M. L., and Barnett, T. P. (1990). “Chapter 8: report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change: the IPCC scientific assessment.”Detection of the greenhouse effect in the observations, J. T. Houghton, G. J. Jenkins, and J. J. Ephraums, eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K.
16.
Wilson, C. A., and Mitchell, J. F. B.(1987). “Simulated climate and CO2-induced climate change over Western Europe.”J. Climatic Change, 10, 11–42.
17.
Woodward, W. A., and Gray, H. L. (1983). “A comparison of autoregressive and harmonic components models for the Lynx data.”J. Royal Statistical Soc., A146, 71–73.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 2 • Issue 4 • October 1997
Pages: 154 - 160
Copyright
Copyright © 1997 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Published online: Oct 1, 1997
Published in print: Oct 1997
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.