Stochastic Duration Modeling of Pavement Overlay Crack Initiation
Publication: Journal of Infrastructure Systems
Volume 14, Issue 3
Abstract
In this paper we present the development of an empirical pavement overlay crack initiation model using condition survey data for the highway system in the state of Washington. We use a semiparametric Cox model and show that its hazard function represents the sample hazard function, which follows a bathtub shape. This is a shape that commonly used parametric models cannot predict. Empirical data complications, such as the endogeneity of overlay design variables and data censoring, are corrected for using appropriate econometric techniques. Our research shows that a specification that captures the main factors responsible for the overlay crack initiation process, combined with careful analysis of the data, can produce models of sufficient realism for maintenance and rehabilitation action selection purposes.
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Acknowledgments
The California Department of Transportation Division of Research and Innovation funded this work, through a contract with the Partnered Pavement Research Center at the University of California at Berkeley. The writers are grateful for the assistance provided by Dr. John Harvey of University of California Davis in obtaining the data used in this research. The views and opinions presented in this paper are solely those of the writers.
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Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Infrastructure Systems
Volume 14 • Issue 3 • September 2008
Pages: 185 - 192
Copyright
© 2008 ASCE.
History
Received: Feb 28, 2006
Accepted: Jun 8, 2007
Published online: Sep 1, 2008
Published in print: Sep 2008
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