System Risk Curves: Probabilistic Performance Scenarios for Highway Networks Subject to Earthquake Damage
Publication: Journal of Infrastructure Systems
Volume 13, Issue 1
Abstract
Monte Carlo simulation techniques are used with bridge fragility curves to evaluate bridge damage in terms of a bridge damage index, and highway network link damage in terms of a link damage index. Static, user-equilibrium analysis is used to evaluate total transportation network delay due to seismically induced damage inflicted on the Los Angeles and Orange County State highway and freeway network. A method of regional seismic risk analysis for highway systems is developed based on the definition of scenario earthquakes representing the seismic hazard of the region, and hazard-consistent probabilities are computed for each scenario. The final result of these efforts is a transportation system risk curve.
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Acknowledgments
This work has contributed to ongoing investigations supported by National Science Foundation Award No. NSFCMS-9812503 (ISMHR), by the NSF Earthquake Engineering Research Centers Program under Award No. NSFEEC-9701568, and by the Institute for Civil Infrastructure Systems (ICIS), sponsored by the NSF under Award No. NSFCMS-9728805. Use of EPEDAT was provided courtesy of EQE International, now ABS Consulting. The writers are grateful for this support. This work has been substantially improved by the contributions of three anonymous referees. All opinions, findings, conclusions, and recommendations expressed in this document are those of the writers, and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation.
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Information
Published In
Journal of Infrastructure Systems
Volume 13 • Issue 1 • March 2007
Pages: 43 - 54
Copyright
© 2007 ASCE.
History
Received: Dec 2, 2003
Accepted: Mar 31, 2006
Published online: Mar 1, 2007
Published in print: Mar 2007
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