Comparing Probabilistic Methods for the Asset Management of Distributed Items
Publication: Journal of Infrastructure Systems
Volume 11, Issue 2
Abstract
Markov models have met with widespread success when used to determine asset management strategies for infrastructure systems such as pavements, bridges, and electricity and water networks. However other probabilistic models could be chosen. This paper compares the performance of the Markov model with two of these, the semi-Markov model and the delay time model. Both these models let the transition probabilities between states depend on the time already spent in the state. This is an attractive feature as many degradation situations have it. The three models are compared on two data sets derived from measurements carried out on 11 kV transformers and switchgear. As full condition histories are required to know how the predicted costs of a proposed asset management policy compare with the actual costs that would be obtained in practice, a method for simulating these condition histories was developed. All the models performed well, but the semi-Markov model was generally significantly better. Particularly noteworthy was the fact that this was true even when there were a limited number of observations.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Acknowledgments
This work was carried out in collaboration with the EA Technology Strategic Technology Programme (STP). The writers would like to thank EA Technology and the companies participating in module 4 of the STP for permission to publish this work. M.B. was supported by EPSRC Grant No. GR/N11575. This paper has been considerably improved by the comments received from the referees.
References
Black, M., Brint, A. T., and Brailsford, J. R. (2005). “A semi-Markov approach for modelling asset deterioration.” J. Oper. Res. Soc. (in press).
Butt, A. A., Shahin, M. Y., Feighan, K. J., and Carpenter, S. H. (1987). “Pavement performance prediction using the Markov process.” Transportation Research Record, 1123, Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C., 12–19.
Carnahan, J. V., Davis, W. J., Shahin, M. Y., Keane, P. L., and Wu, M. I. (1987). “Optimal maintenance decisions for pavement management.” J. Transp. Eng., 113(5), 554–572.
Christer, A. H. (1999). “Developments in delay time analysis for modelling plant maintenance.” J. Oper. Res. Soc., 50(11), 1120–1137.
Golabi, K., Kulkarni, R. B., and Way, G. B. (1982). “A statewide pavement management system.” Interfaces, 12, 5–21.
Hoskins, R. P., Strbac, G., and Brint, A. T. (1999). “Modelling the degradation of condition indices.” IEE Proc. Generation, Transmission Distribution, 146(4), 386–392.
Kleiner, Y. (2001). “Scheduling inspection and renewal of large infrastructure assets.” J. Infrastruct. Syst., 7(4), 136–143.
Li, N., Haas, R., and Xie, W.-C. (1997). “Investigation of relationships between deterministic and probabilistic prediction models in pavement management.” Transportation Research Record, 1592, Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C., 70–79.
Luong, H. T., and Nagarur, N. N. (2001). “Optimal replacement policy for single pipes in water distribution networks.” Water Resour. Res., 37(12), 3285–3293.
Madanat, S. M., Karlaftis, M. G., and McCarthy, P. S. (1997). “Probabilistic infrastructure deterioration models with panel data.” J. Infrastruct. Syst., 3(1), 4–9.
Moubray, J. (1991). Reliability-centered maintenance, Butterworth Heinemann, London.
Nesbitt, D. M., Sparks, G. A., and Neudorff, R. D. (1993). “A semi-Markov formulation of the pavement maintenance optimization problem.” Can. J. Civ. Eng., 20(3), 436–447.
Puterman, M. L. (1994). Markov decision processes, Wiley, New York.
Scherer, W. T., and Glagola, D. M. (1994). “Markovian models for bridge maintenance management.” J. Transp. Eng., 120(1), 37–51.
Silva, F. D. E., Van Dam, T. J., Bulleit, W. M., and Ylitalo, R. (2000).“Proposed pavement performance models for local government agencies in Michigan.” Transportation Research Record, 1699, Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C., 81–86.
Wirahadikusumah, R., Abraham, D., and Iseley, T. (2001).“Challenging issues in modeling deterioration of combined sewers.” J. Infrastruct. Syst., 7(2), 77–84.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Infrastructure Systems
Volume 11 • Issue 2 • June 2005
Pages: 102 - 109
Copyright
© 2005 ASCE.
History
Received: Aug 5, 2003
Accepted: Jul 12, 2004
Published online: Jun 1, 2005
Published in print: Jun 2005
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.