Modeling of Lake Ice Characteristics in North America Using Climate, Geography, and Lake Bathymetry
Publication: Journal of Cold Regions Engineering
Volume 20, Issue 4
Abstract
Ice cover records from 128 freshwater lakes in the United States and Canada were analyzed. Multivariable linear regression models, log-transform models, and a combination of the two (the “hybrid” form) were used to express ice-in date, ice-out date, and maximum ice thickness as functions of mean air temperature, latitude, average depth, elevation, and surface area of each lake. Mean air temperatures are for periods from September 1 to December 31 for ice-in dates, February 1 to June 30 for ice-out dates, and September 1 to June 30 for maximum ice thickness. Data for individual years as well as averages (over the record length) for each lake were analyzed. The log-transform formulas proved best for estimating ice-in date, while the hybrid form provided the best models of maximum ice thickness. The linear regression model estimated the ice-out date best. In most cases, mean air temperature and/or latitude were the most influential parameters, followed by elevation. Lake surface area and depth had a small or no influence. values of all equations ranged from 0.50 to 0.92.
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Acknowledgments
This paper was made possible by the Minnesota Supercomputing Institute and its internship program, and by the cooperation and help of Kari L. Layman. The original data were provided by John Magnuson and Barbara Benson, North Temperate Lakes Long-Term Ecological Research Project, Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wis.; Susan Kasian, Database Manager, Experimental Lakes Area, Department of Fisheries and Oceans, Winnipeg, Canada; and Steve Kahl, Director, Water Research Institute, University of Maine, Orono, Me. We are grateful to these individuals for providing the data.
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Information
Published In
Journal of Cold Regions Engineering
Volume 20 • Issue 4 • December 2006
Pages: 140 - 167
Copyright
© 2006 ASCE.
History
Received: Jul 23, 2003
Accepted: Aug 9, 2005
Published online: Dec 1, 2006
Published in print: Dec 2006
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