Multiple Linear Regression for Lake Ice and Lake Temperature Characteristics
Publication: Journal of Cold Regions Engineering
Volume 13, Issue 2
Abstract
Lake ice and lake temperatures depend on climate and lake morphometry. Simulated lake ice and lake temperature characteristics of 10 large lakes in Minnesota were therefore related to climate parameters, geographic location, lake surface area, and depth by multiple linear regressions. The regression equations were developed because they are much easier to use than a deterministic, unsteady simulation model that requires time series of weather data as input and produces very detailed information as output. Some of the regression equations were then employed to hindcast the ice-in dates, ice-out dates, ice cover duration, and maximum ice thicknesses for several freshwater lakes in the United States and one in Canada. The hindcast results were compared with field data from the same lakes. The standard errors between observed and predicted ice-in dates, ice-out dates, ice cover duration, and maximum ice thicknesses for the lakes tested are 4 days, 6–7 days, 4–7 days, and 0.05–0.06 m, respectively, depending on the equations used. Ice-in date is slightly better predicted than ice-out date and ice cover duration. Because the 10 lakes used to develop the multiple linear regressions are all in Minnesota, and the lakes used to verify the regression equations are in Wisconsin, Maine, and Ontario, the regression equations are considered validated and applicable at least to lakes in the north-central United States and in southern Ontario.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
References
1.
Adams, C. E. ( 1997). “Field data on lake ice covers: Dependence on lake characteristics and climate.” Appendices A–E to Proj. Rep. No. 405 and Raw Data, External Memo. No. 245, St. Anthony Falls Lab., University of Minnesota, Minneapolis.
2.
Adams, C. E., and Stefan, H. G. ( 1997). “Field data on lake ice covers: Dependence on lake characteristics and climate.” Proj. Rep. No. 405, St. Anthony Falls Lab., University of Minnesota, Minneapolis.
3.
Adams, E. E., Cosler, D. J., and Helfrich, K. R. ( 1990). “Evaporation from heated water bodies: Predicting combined forced plus free convection.” Water Resour. Res., 26(3), 425–435.
4.
Edinger, J. E., Duttweiler, D. W., and Geyer, J. C. ( 1968). “The response of water temperatures to meteorological conditions.” Water Resour. Res., 4(5), 1137–1145.
5.
Fang, X., Ellis, C. R., and Stefan, H. G. ( 1996). “Simulation and observation of ice formation (freeze-over) in a lake.” Cold Regions Sci. and Technol., 24, 129–145.
6.
Fang, X., and Stefan, H. G. ( 1994). “Temperature and dissolved oxygen simulations for a lake with ice cover.” Proj. Rep. No. 356, St. Anthony Falls Lab., University of Minnesota, Minneapolis.
7.
Fang, X., and Stefan, H. G. ( 1995). “Longterm lake water temperature and ice cover simulations/measurements.” Cold Regions Sci. and Technol., 24(3), 289–304.
8.
Fang, X., and Stefan, H. G. ( 1996). “Development and validation of the water quality model MINLAKE 96 with winter data.” Proj. Rep. No. 390, St. Anthony Falls Lab., University of Minnesota, Minneapolis.
9.
Fang, X., and Stefan, H. G. ( 1998a). “Potential climate warming effects on ice cover of small lakes in the contiguous U.S.” Cold Regions Sci. and Technol., 27, 119–140.
10.
Fang, X., and Stefan, H. G. ( 1999). “Projections of climate change effects on water temperature characteristics of small lakes in the contiguous U.S.” Climatic Change.
11.
Gao, S., and Stefan, H. G. ( 1997). “Simulations of seasonal water temperature cycles and stratification in large lakes in Minnesota.” Proj. Rep. No. 410, St. Anthony Falls Lab., University of Minnesota, Minneapolis.
12.
Gao, S., and Stefan, H. G. ( 1998a). “Multiple linear regression analysis for lake ice and lake temperature characteristics.” Proj. Rep. No. 422, St. Anthony Falls Lab., University of Minnesota, Minneapolis.
13.
Gao, S., and Stefan, H. G. ( 1998b). “Observed and simulated ice characteristics on five freshwater lakes and extrapolation to a projected 2 × CO2 climate scenario.” Proj. Rep. No. 411, St. Anthony Falls Lab., University of Minnesota, Minneapolis.
14.
Gu, R., and Stefan, H. G. ( 1990). “Year-round temperature simulation of cold climate lakes.” Cold Regions Sci. and Technol., (18), 147–160.
15.
Gu, R., and Stefan, H. G. ( 1993). “Validation of cold climate lake temperature simulation.” Cold Regions Sci. and Technol., 22, 99–104.
16.
Hondzo, M., and Stefan, H. G. (1993). “Lake water temperature simulation model.”J. Hydr. Engrg., ASCE, 119(11), 1251–1273.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Cold Regions Engineering
Volume 13 • Issue 2 • June 1999
Pages: 59 - 77
History
Published online: Jun 1, 1999
Published in print: Jun 1999
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.