Current Forecast for Tunnel-Element Immersion in the Bosphorus Strait, Turkey
Publication: Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering
Volume 135, Issue 3
Abstract
The Bosphorus Tube Tunnel beneath the Bosphorus Strait is under construction in Istanbul, Turkey, using the tunnel-element immersed method. It is well known that the Bosphorus Strait has a two-layer current system with a rapidly changing flow. To maintain quality and safety of tunnel-element installation, it is important to accurately forecast the current-flow condition for periods of to identify windows of opportunity for the element-immersion process. In this study, a forecast system is developed based on the information collected and analyzed over an immediate past five-day period to provide a two-day period current prediction required for the element-immersion process. The system consists of a water-level forecast model and a current forecast model. The water level is forecasted from air pressure and wind information obtained from on-line monitoring data and meteorological service forecasts. The current is then forecasted from the water-level data taking the two-layer density interface effect and the immediate preceding current data (including its concurrent value) into consideration. This selected data-analysis period is determined based on our operational experience at the site. Both models are statistically constructed and calibrated using a year-long observation data set (October 2004–September 2005). It is found that the proposed forecast system gives sufficiently accurate current information for safe ongoing marine construction operation.
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Acknowledgments
The forecast system was developed in the Marmaray Project—the Marmaray Rail Tube Tunnel and Commuter Rail Mass Transit System in Istanbul. DLH (The Ministry of Transportation, Turkey) and Avrasyaconsult (international consultant team) provided support for this development. Their contributions are gratefully acknowledged.
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Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering
Volume 135 • Issue 3 • May 2009
Pages: 108 - 119
Copyright
© 2009 ASCE.
History
Received: Dec 27, 2007
Accepted: Dec 9, 2008
Published online: May 1, 2009
Published in print: May 2009
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