Synthetic Tropical Cyclone Database
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VIEW THE REPLYPublication: Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering
Volume 131, Issue 4
Abstract
A mathematical model capable of simulating tropical cyclone tracks and central pressure histories over the Coral Sea, Australia, is described. The modeling approach assumes that each cyclone is an independent realization of the same underlying stochastic process. Relatively simple autoregressive models are used for the time series of latitude, longitude, and central pressure. The model is used to generate a large database of synthetic storms whose statistical characteristics are shown to simulate those of the population of real storms. Each synthetic storm can be used, in conjunction with a separately developed wind field model, to drive numerical models for computing wave heights and water levels (including storm surges) throughout the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park. In this way, the sample size available for estimating extreme wave heights and water levels is greatly increased
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Acknowledgments
The writers are grateful to T. Hardy for encouragement, advice, and support and for computing assistance generously provided by J. McConochie. Thanks also to B. Harper and L. Bode for useful comments on the work and to two anonymous reviewers who provided useful comments that led to improvements to the manuscript. The project was partially supported by the Australian Cooperative Research Centres Program through the Cooperative Research Centre for Sustainable Development of the Great Barrier Reef.
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Published In
Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering
Volume 131 • Issue 4 • July 2005
Pages: 181 - 192
Copyright
© 2005 ASCE.
History
Received: Jan 5, 2004
Accepted: Dec 15, 2004
Published online: Jul 1, 2005
Published in print: Jul 2005
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