Inverse Algorithm for Tsunami Forecasts
Publication: Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering
Volume 129, Issue 2
Abstract
This paper describes a methodology to assess the severity of a tsunami in progress based on real-time water-level data near the source. The inverse method, which uses tsunami signals in water-level data to infer seismic source parameters, is extended to predict the tsunami waveforms away from the source. This study focuses on the Alaska-Aleutian source region and its potential threat to Hawaii. The algorithm divides the source region into 41 subfaults based on previous analyses of major tsunamigenic earthquakes from 1938 to 1986. For unit slip of the subfaults, a linear long-wave model generates a database of synthetic mareograms at 13 water-level stations near the source and at six strategic locations in the Pacific. Regression of recorded tsunami signals using the mareograms provides the slip distribution at the source and the expected waveforms near Hawaii. A jackknife resampling scheme provides the confidence interval bounds of the predictions. The algorithm along with the database is tested and verified using numerically simulated and actual water-level data of past tsunami events.
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Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering
Volume 129 • Issue 2 • March 2003
Pages: 60 - 69
Copyright
Copyright © 2003 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Mar 30, 2001
Accepted: Jul 29, 2002
Published online: Feb 14, 2003
Published in print: Mar 2003
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