Reliability-Based Risk Assessment in Coastal Projects: Case Study in Turkey
Publication: Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering
Volume 128, Issue 2
Abstract
The risk of damage during the construction phase of a coastal structure was investigated by utilizing Level II and III reliability methods. Structural risks were incorporated in the planning phase of coastal projects by utilizing a practical risk management approach implemented in the Mezitli (Icel) Yacht Harbor project in Turkey. By specifying the exceedance probability of damage level at the design stage, the delay times of construction activities due to damage were obtained at the project-planning phase, which enabled the estimation of the project completion time. It is found that structural risk of damage in the construction period can be an important factor to be considered in the reliability-based project management, because coastal projects involve considerable damage risk during the construction phase. The application of Monte Carlo simulations (Level III), which is generally performed within a few minutes of CPU time in fast computers, has the advantage of robustness when compared with the second-order methods such as the Hasofer-Lind method, provided that the probability distribution of random variables and their correlation are described with an acceptable accuracy, which should be obtained from data accumulated over a sufficient number of years. In this study, by specifying the exceedance probability of “no damage level” at the design stage, the probability of construction completion times were estimated at the planning phase for the case study of Mezitli Yacht Harbor, where the probability distributions of random variables were obtained from the governmental archives.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
References
Al-Futaisi, A., and Stedinger, J. R.(1999). “Hydrologic and economic uncertainties and flood-risk project design.” J. Water Resour. Plan. Manage., 125(6), 314–324.
Balas, C. E. (1998). “A risk management model for coastal projects.” PhD thesis, Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Middle East Technical Univ., Ankara, Turkey.
Balas, C. E., and Ergin, A.(2000). “A sensitivity study for the second order reliability based design model of rubble mound breakwaters.” Coastal Eng. J., 42(1), 57–86.
Basson, M.(1999). “The importance of environmental factors in the design of management procedures.” ICES J. Mar. Sci., 56(6), 933–942.
Breitung, K., Casciati, F., and Faravelli, L.(1998). “Stochastic programming methods and technical applications.” Optimization Methods Struct. Reliability, 458, 359–369.
Bruggeman, A. C., Mostaghimi, S., and Brannan, K. M.(1999). “A stochastic model for solute transport in macroporous soils.” Trans. ASAE, 42(6), 1743–1752.
Burcharth, H. F. (1992). “Reliability evaluation of a structure at sea.” Proc., short course on design and reliability of coastal structures: structural integrity, A. Lamberti, ed., Tecnoprint snc, Venice, Italy, 511–545.
Burcharth, H. F., and Sorensen J. D. (1999a). “Design of vertical wall caisson breakwater using partial safety factors.” Proc., 26th Int. Conf. on Coastal Engineering, ASCE, Reston, Va., 2138–2151.
Burcharth, H. F., and Sorensen, J. D. (1999b). “The PIANC safety factor system for breakwaters.” Proc., Coastal Structures ’99, I. J. Losada, ed., Balkemare, Spain, 1125–1144.
Cederbaum, G., and Arbocz, J.(1996). “On the reliability of imperfection-sensitive long isotropic cylindrical shells.” Struct. Safety, 18(1), 1–9.
Christiani, E., Burcharth, H. F., and Sorensen, J. D. (1996). “Reliability based optimal design of vertical breakwaters modeled as a series system of failure.” Proc., Int. Conf. on Coastal Engineering, ASCE, New York, 1589–1602.
Ergin, A., and Özhan, E. (1994). “Icel Yacht Harbor Research Studies.” Technical Rep. No. 52, Coastal Engineering Research Center, Middle East Technical Univ., Ankara, Turkey.
Ersari, M. A. (1998). “Risk analysis for time and cost simulation of coastal projects.” MS thesis, Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Middle East Technical Univ., Ankara, Turkey.
Flanagan, R., and Norman, G. (1993). Risk management and construction, Blackwell Science, London.
Hastak, M., and Shaked, A.(2000). “ICRAM-1: model for international construction risk assessment.” J. Manage. Eng., 16(1), 59–69.
Hegazy, T.(1999). “Optimization of construction time-cost trade-off analysis using genetic algorithms.” Can. J. Civ. Eng., 26(6), 685–697.
Hill, M., Walling, H., and Brunner, S.(1999). “Outsourced construction management enhances offshore projects.'Outsourced construction management enhances offshore projects.'’ Oil Gas J., 97(45), 74–77.
Hillyer, T. M., Stakhiv, E. Z., and Sudar, R. A.(1997). “An evaluation of the economic performance of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers shore protection program.” J. Coastal Res., 13(1), 8–22.
Koc, L. (2001). “Reliability-based risk assessment of coastal projects.” PhD thesis, Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Gazi Univ., Ankara, Turkey.
Lam, K. C., and Runeson, G.(1999). “Modeling financial decisions in construction firms.” Constr. Manage. Econom., 17, 589–602.
Low, B. K.(1997). “Reliability analysis of rock wedges.” J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng., 123(6), 498–505.
Low, B. K., Gilbert, R. B., and Wright, S. G.(1998). “Slope reliability analysis using generalized method of slices.” J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng., 124(4), 350–362.
Mase, H., Sakamato, M., and Sakai, T.(1995). “Neural network for stability analysis of rubble-mound breakwaters.” J. Waterw., Port, Coastal, Ocean Eng., 121(6), 294–299.
Ndambuki, J. M., Otieno, F. A. O., Stroet, C. B. M., and Veling, E. J. M.(2000). “Groundwater management under uncertainty: a multi-objective approach.” Water SA, 26(1), 35–42.
Onder, M. B. (2000). “Reliability-based risk assessment of coastal projects.” MS thesis, Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Gazi Univ., Ankara, Turkey.
Oumeraci, H., and Kortenhaus, A. (1998). “Probabilistic design tools for vertical breakwaters (PROVERBS).” MAST Days and EUROMAR Market Project Rep., Commission of the European Communities, Lisbon, Portugal, 1–15.
Özhan, E., and Yalciner, A. C. (1995). “Determination of existing situation in TEAS Akkuyu Harbor breakwater construction.” Technical Rep. No. 52, Coastal Engineering Research Center, Middle East Technical Univ., Ankara, Turkey.
Pandey, M. D.(1998). “An effective approximation to evaluate multinormal integrals.” Struct. Safety, 20, 51–67.
Pantelides, C. P., and Booth, B. C.(1999). “Computer-aided design of optimal structures with uncertainty.” Comput. Struct., 74, 293–307.
Park, Y. H., Choi, K. K., and Tu, J.(1999). “A new study on reliability-based design optimization.” J. Mech. Eng., 121, 557–564.
Permanent International Association of Navigation Congresses (PIANC). (1989). “Construction deviations and reliability of construction.” Working Group Rep. WG12D-45, Brussels, Belgium.
Portielje, R., Hvitved-Jacobsen, T., and Schaarup-Jensen, K.(2000). “Risk analysis using stochastic reliability methods applied to two cases of deterministic water quality models.” Water Res., 34(1), 153–170.
Raftery, J. (1994). Risk analyses in project management, Chapman and Hall, London.
Shimosako, K., and Takahashi, S. (1999). “Application of deformation-based reliability design for coastal structures—expected sliding distance method of composite breakwaters.” Proc., Coastal Structures’99, I. J. Losada, ed., Balkemare, Spain, 363–371.
Sorensen, J. D., Kroon, I. B., and Faber, M. H.(1994). “Optimal reliability-based code calibration.” Struct. Safety, 15, 197–208.
Touran, A., and Wiser, E. P.(1992). “Monte Carlo technique with correlated random variables.” J. Constr. Eng. Manage., 118(2), 258–272.
Van der Meer, J. W. (1988). Rock slopes and gravel beaches under wave attack, Delft Hydraulics, Delft, The Netherlands.
Van Gent, M. R. A., and Van der Boogaard, H. F. P. (1998). “Neural network modeling of forces on vertical structures.” Proc., Int. Conf. on Coastal Engineering, ASCE, Reston, Va., 2069–2109.
Wall, D., and Waj, L.(1997). “Distributions and correlation in Monte Carlo simulation.” Constr. Manage. Econom., 15, 241–258.
Williams, A. T., Davies, P., Ergin, A., and Balas, C. E.(1998). “Coastal recession and the reliability of planned responses: Colhuw Beach, The Glamorgan Heritage Coast.” J. Coastal Res., SI-126, 72–79.
Xu, C. C., and Goulter, I. C.(1999). “Reliability-based optimal design of water distribution networks.” J. Water Resour. Plan. Manage., 125(6), 352–362.
Zhai, H., and Russel, J. S.(1999). “Stochastic modeling and prediction of contractor default risk.” Constr. Manage. Econom., 17, 563–576.
Zhao, Y., and Ono, T.(1999). “A general procedure for first/second order reliability method (FORM/SORM).” Struct. Safety, 21, 95–112.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering
Volume 128 • Issue 2 • March 2002
Pages: 52 - 61
Copyright
Copyright © 2002 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Apr 26, 1999
Accepted: Aug 3, 2001
Published online: Mar 1, 2002
Published in print: Mar 2002
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.