Model for Recurrence Rate of Hurricanes in Gulf of Mexico
Publication: Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering
Volume 123, Issue 3
Abstract
A model and estimation procedure are proposed for the recurrence rate of hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico. The model and the estimation procedure are based on the representation of the hurricane tracks as a locally linear line process. The spatial variation of the intensity of the process is estimated through a kernel estimation procedure. The optimal degree of smoothness is selected through a resampling procedure and goodness-of-fit statistics. Simulations demonstrate that the model and estimation procedures can detect statistically significant spatial variations in the rate of occurrence of hurricanes. The emphasis of the study is on storms that have affected the offshore areas between the northwest Florida panhandle and the Texas coast. The optimal model indicates that the spatial variation of the recurrence rate is statistically significant and that the highest frequency of hurricanes occurs offshore west of New Orleans. The implications from a hurricane hazard point of view are most significant for deepwater offshore projects, while the recurrence rate appears to be almost constant along the western coast of the Gulf in shallower waters.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
References
1.
American Petroleum Institute (API). (1993). “Recommended practice for planning, designing and constructing fixed offshore platforms.”API Recommended Practice 2A (RP 2A), 20th Ed., Washington, D.C.
2.
Chouinard, L. E. (1992). “Regional design wave heights in the Gulf of Mexico.”Proc., 24th Annu. Offshore Technol. Conf., OTC 6832, OTC, Houston, Tex., 223–234.
3.
Chouinard, L. E., and Liu, C. (1993). “Probability of severe hurricanes across the Gulf of Mexico.”Proc., Hurricanes of 1992 Conf., ASCE, New York, N.Y., 696–705.
4.
Chouinard, L. E., and Liu C., and Cooper(1997). “Model for severity of hurricanes in Gulf of Mexico.”J. Wtrwy., Port, Coast., and Oc. Engrg., ASCE, 123(3), 120–129.
5.
Cressie, N. A. C. (1993). Statistics for spatial data. John Wiley & Sons, New York, N.Y.
6.
Diggle, P. J. (1983). “Statistical analysis of spatial point patterns.” John Wiley and Sons, New York, N.Y.
7.
Efron, B. (1982). The jackknife, the bootstrap, and other resampling techniques. Soc. for Industrial and Appl. Math., Philadelphia, Pa.
8.
Haring, R. C., and Heideman, J. C. (1978). “Gulf of Mexico rare wave return periods.”Proc., 10th Annu. Offshore Technol. Conf., OTC 3229, OTC, Houston, Tex., 1523–1536.
9.
Ho, F. P., et al. (1987). “Hurricane climatology for the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts of the United States.”NOAA Tech. Rep. NWS38, Federal Emergency Mgmt. Agency, Washington, D.C.
10.
Hope, J. R., and Neumann, C. J. (1971). “Digitized Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks.”NOAA Tech. Memo. NWS SR-55, Nat. Oceanic and Atmospheric Admin., Fort Worth, Tex., July.
11.
Lewis, J. K., and Hsu, S. A. (1992). “Mesoscale air-sea interactions related to tropical and extratropical storms in the Gulf of Mexico.”J. Geophys. Res., 97(C2), 2215–2228.
12.
Marron, J. S.(1985). “An asymptotically efficient solution to the bandwidth problem.”Annals of Statistics, 13(3), 1011–1023.
13.
Rudemo, M.(1984). “Empirical choice of histograms and kernel density estimators.”Scandinavian J. Statistics—Theory and Applications, England, 9(2), 65–78.
14.
Russell, L. R.(1971). “Probability distributions for hurricane effects.”J. Wtrwy., Harb., and Coast. Engrg. Div., ASCE, 97(1), 139–154.
15.
Silverman, B. W. (1985). Density estimation for statistics and data analysis. John Wiley and Sons, New York, N.Y.
16.
Stoyan, D., and Stoyan, H. (1994). “Fractals, random shapes and point fields—Methods of geometrical statistics.” John Wiley & Sons, New York, N.Y.
17.
Ward, E. G., Borgman, L. E., and Cardone, V. J. (1978). “Statistics of hurricane waves in the Gulf of Mexico.”Proc., Offshore Technol. Conf., OTC 3229, OTC, Houston, Tex., 1523–1536.
18.
Wen, Y. K. (1988). “Environmental event combination criteria phase I: Risk analysis.”Rep., Dept. of Civ. Engrg., Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, Ill.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering
Volume 123 • Issue 3 • May 1997
Pages: 113 - 119
Copyright
Copyright © 1997 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Published online: May 1, 1997
Published in print: May 1997
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.