Substantiated Risk Assessment of Jacket Structure
Publication: Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering
Volume 120, Issue 6
Abstract
We demonstrate a rational approach to structural reliability based on state‐of‐the‐art models. The risk of failure was calculated for a jacket structure in the Gulf of Mexico subjected to environmental loading. This was done both for one particular extreme hurricane that the structure survived and also for long‐term loading. Statistics of extreme loads were generated from a hindcast study. The fluid loading was calculated using well‐validated theories for the kinematics of extreme random waves and currents. Nonlinear pushover analysis was used to evaluate the ultimate strength of the structure. The likelihood of structural failure was predicted by calculating the probability that the environmental load would exceed the resistance of the structure. Physical uncertainty in the extreme environmental load and the resistance of the structure were included. These results and those from a previous analysis of a damaged structure match well with observations, corroborating the approach and its wider application.
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Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering
Volume 120 • Issue 6 • November 1994
Pages: 535 - 556
Copyright
Copyright © 1994 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Jan 20, 1993
Published online: Nov 1, 1994
Published in print: Nov 1994
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