Prediction of Tidal Surge in Lower Chesapeake Bay
Publication: Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering
Volume 114, Issue 2
Abstract
Tidal surge is the difference between observed water level and predicted astronomical tide. At present, surge predictions for Sewell's Point, Virginia, rely on Pore's hurricane surge model, a linear combination of forecast surface pressures over a large portion of the Atlantic Ocean. We have developed a variation on this method by including previous surge, local wind, and local pressure terms with time lags of up to 18 hr to predict local daily surge. We derived surge prediction equations for three substations 15–120 km (8–65 nautical miles) from Sewell's Point. Surge predictions at all four stations were improved at least 23% by the new regression equations. The ease in using the new equations and their improved accuracy make these new equations preferable to the Pore prediction method. Our procedure is especially useful to shippers, property owners, and others with limited data sources.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
References
1.
Byers, H. R. (1974). “Quantitative approaches to weather prediction.” General Meteorology, 4th Ed., McGraw‐Hill, Inc., New York, N.Y.
2.
Chen, H. S. (1981). “A finite element model of storm surge and circulation for Chesapeake Bay and its Atlantic nearshore.” Oceans '81 Conference Record, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Vol. 2, Sep., 815–819.
3.
Flather, R. A. (1981). “Practical surge prediction using numerical models.” Floods due to high winds and tides, D. H. Peregrine, ed., Academic Press, London, U.K., 21–43.
4.
Murty, T. S. (1979). “Contribution of physical oceanographic processes to sea‐level variation.” Ocean Energy: Papers of the Annual Conference on Marine Technology, Marine Technology Society, Vol. 15, Oct., 398–404.
5.
Pore, N. A., Richardson, W. S., and Perrotti, H. P. (1974). “Forecasting extratropical storm surges for the northeast coast of the United States.” Technical Memorandum NWS TDL‐50, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce, Silver Spring, Md.
6.
Richardson, W. S., and Gilman, C. S. (1984). “Improved automated extratropical storm surge forecast guidance for East Coast cities.” Natl. Weather Digest, 9(2), 11–17.
7.
Statistical Analysis Institute Software Package (1974). SAS Institute, Inc., Cary, N. C.
8.
Townsend, J. (1981). “Storm surges and their forecasting.” Floods due to high winds and tides, D. H. Peregrine, ed., Academic Press, London, U.K., 1–7.
9.
Wolf, J. (1981). “Surge‐tide interaction in the North Sea and River Thames.” Floods due to high winds and tides, D. H. Peregrine, ed., Academic Press, London, U.K., 75–94.
10.
Yang, C. Y., Parisi, A. M., and Gaither, W. S. (1970). “Statistical prediction of hurricane storm surge.” Proc. of the 12th Coastal Engineering Conference, ASCE, 3, Sep., Washington, D.C., 2011–2030.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Copyright
Copyright © 1988 ASCE.
History
Published online: Mar 1, 1988
Published in print: Mar 1988
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.